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Great Depression
The U.S. economic and systemic-solvency crises of the last five years continue to deteriorate yet they remain just the precursors to the coming Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. The unfolding circumstance will encompass a complete loss in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar; a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity; a collapse in the U.S. financial system, as we know it; and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment.
January 29th, 2012 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Harvard Professor/Economic Historian Niall Ferguson wrote recently that he is of the opinion that, while all the fiscal and monetary government stimuli undertaken by many of the governments of the world’s developed countries since 2007 may have averted a second Great Depression, they will, most likely, still experience a “slight” depression. Campbell reviews the rationale behind Ferguson’s position and then presents his view that, as he sees it, most developed countries will face, instead, “a form of” Stagflation where the prices of non-durable goods (food, energy, and basic consumables) inflate, but the price of durable goods (long-term assets such as houses, cars, refrigerators, etc.) deflate. Campbell’s commentary makes for a very thought-provoking read. Words: 922
October 7th, 2011 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Unless the S&P 500 rebounds and stays above 1250-1260, the recent 10% drop in the index may well be an indication that the markets have capitulated and a signal of the beginning of a renewed severe downturn. Words: 752
July 31st, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
There is a difference between inflation and hyperinflation…and there is no gradual path from one to the other. To wind up with true hyperinflation, some very bad things have to happen. The government has to completely lose control… the populace has to completely lose faith in the system… or both at the same time. [Are we there yet? Let's take a look.] Words: 1188
April 24th, 2011 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Investors are beginning to understand that the U.S. dollar is not the safe haven they perceived it was a few years ago and concurrently, neither are U.S. Treasury notes and bonds. Given the American national debt and deficit problems, from both a fundamental and technical perspective, the U.S. greenback has the potential for considerable downside. Ergo and by axiom, gold bullion has significant upside potential to $1,500 per ounce over the short to mid-term time horizon of 1 – 2 years and $4,000 per ounce over the longer term. Words: 1104
September 21st, 2010 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
There are very compelling arguments for both inflation and deflation. The answer will eventually depend on decisions made in Washington and how people react to those decisions. For now, let’s stop fooling ourselves and admit that we don’t know. It is a problem that has to be dealt with and there is no easy medicine. Either path will be painful, but that’s what we get for our two and a half decade debt binge. Words: 1142
April 9th, 2010 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Inflation lurks in the shadows. It destroys value by gradually eroding real returns over time. It is financial death by a thousand cuts. Investors too often look at “the numbers” in their portfolio without asking what those numbers can actually buy over time. It’s a classic mistake that John Maynard Keynes termed “money illusion.” Words: 1335
April 4th, 2010 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Here are [6 of my 11] my prognostications in the areas of the economy, domestic politics, global geopolitics, and the investment markets: The US Dollar will fall to record low; house prices will fall a further 10%; interest rates will rise; unemployment rate will rise to 11%; oil prices will exceed $100; the stock market will drop 30%. Let’s hope I’m wrong! Words: 681
March 15th, 2010 | Posted in 2011-12 Forecasts,Economy | Read More »
Periodically in history, the expansion of credit creates the illusion of prosperity which, regretfully, ends in the inevitable bust which seems to be the case today. The sheer magnitude of credit destruction occuring right now is depressionary. The return to growth will be a long and painful process. Words: 625
March 12th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
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