It is my contention that the price of gold rallies whenever the U.S. dollar’s real short-term interest rate is below 2%, falls whenever the real short rate is above 2%, and holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%. Furthermore, for every one percentage point real rates differ from 2%, gold moves by eight times that amount per year. So if the real rates are at 1%, gold will move up at an 8% annualized rate. If real rates are at 0%, then gold will move up at a 16% rate (that’s been about the story for the past decade). Conversely, if the real rate jumps to 3%, then gold will drop at an 8% rate. [Let me explain.] Words: 982
June 27th, 2011 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing | Read More »
One of the most controversial topics in investing is the price of gold… [with] many goldbugs say[ing]…that gold will soon break $2,000, then $5,000 and then $10,000 an ounce but, [frankly,] how can anyone reasonably calculate what the price of gold [should be when they don't understand the factors that drive gold? So let me explain.] Words: 992
December 20th, 2010 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing | Read More »
At present, the governors of the Fed are creating massive distortions in the financial markets with little hope of improving real economic growth or employment… Quantitative easing promises to have little effect except to provoke commodity [gold and silver] hoarding, a decline in bond yields to levels that reflect nothing but risk premiums for maturity risk, and an expansion in stock valuations to levels that have rarely been sustained for long (the current Shiller P/E of 22 for the S&P 500 has typically been followed by 5- to 10-year total returns below 5% annually). [Let me explain.] Words: 3066
December 14th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
Our leaders in Washington are so detached from reality it begs the question, “What are they smoking?” I’m not talking about the insane amounts of spending that’s going on in our capital, or even about the patently unpayable debts and promises they’re making to all of us and our foreign creditors. Although I think these things, too, result from whatever drugs they’re on inside the beltway I am referring the way Washington manipulates its official statistics. Words: 1107
May 1st, 2010 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Inflation lurks in the shadows. It destroys value by gradually eroding real returns over time. It is financial death by a thousand cuts. Investors too often look at “the numbers” in their portfolio without asking what those numbers can actually buy over time. It’s a classic mistake that John Maynard Keynes termed “money illusion.” Words: 1335
April 4th, 2010 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
In order to prevent a recession from getting out of hand, the central bank must lift the money supply and aggressively lower interest rates. Once consumers have more money in their pockets, their confidence will increase, and they will start spending again, thereby reestablishing the circular flow of money, so it is held. Words: 542
March 13th, 2010 | Posted in Debts/Deficits,Economy | Read More »
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