Monday , 10 December 2018


Tag Archives: Larry Summers

Gibson’s Paradox and the Price of Gold

One of the most controversial topics in investing is the price of gold with many goldbugs saying that gold will soon break $2,000, then $5,000 and then $10,000 a troy ounce but, frankly, how can anyone reasonably calculate what the price of gold should be when they don't understand the factors that drive gold? So let me explain.

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The Future Price of Gold and the 2% Factor

It is my contention that the price of gold rallies whenever the U.S. dollar’s real short-term interest rate is below 2%, falls whenever the real short rate is above 2%, and holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%. Let me explain.

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