It is my contention that the price of gold rallies whenever the U.S. dollar’s real short-term interest rate is below 2%, falls whenever the real short rate is above 2%, and holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%. Furthermore, for every one percentage point real rates differ from 2%, gold moves by eight times that amount per year. So if the real rates are at 1%, gold will move up at an 8% annualized rate. If real rates are at 0%, then gold will move up at a 16% rate (that’s been about the story for the past decade). Conversely, if the real rate jumps to 3%, then gold will drop at an 8% rate. [Let me explain.] Words: 982
June 27th, 2011 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing | Read More »
One of the most controversial topics in investing is the price of gold… [with] many goldbugs say[ing]…that gold will soon break $2,000, then $5,000 and then $10,000 an ounce but, [frankly,] how can anyone reasonably calculate what the price of gold [should be when they don't understand the factors that drive gold? So let me explain.] Words: 992
December 20th, 2010 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing | Read More »
The past several quarters of improving real GDP may be nothing more than an interlude in a more sustained economic downturn, with further negative quarters still ahead. Such an outcome will suppress inflation further and quite possibly lead to deflation. Words: 1986
July 27th, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
The U.S. caused the 1930s deflationary depression and is again the cause of the current contraction. Although similarities exist between the two, the differences between them insure a far more consequential outcome today than in the 1930s. [Indeed, the world] now finds itself on the edge of a growing deflationary sinkhole created by the sequential collapse of two large U.S. bubbles, the dot.com and U.S. real estate bubbles. Words: 1549
July 4th, 2010 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Inflation lurks in the shadows. It destroys value by gradually eroding real returns over time. It is financial death by a thousand cuts. Investors too often look at “the numbers” in their portfolio without asking what those numbers can actually buy over time. It’s a classic mistake that John Maynard Keynes termed “money illusion.” Words: 1335
April 4th, 2010 | Posted in Economy,Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
Niall Ferguson’s book,The Ascent of Money, is an excellent, just-in-time guide to the history of finance and financial crisis in which he shows how promises and paper have lifted humans from subsistence farmers in Babylon to Masters of the Universe on Wall Street. Words: 975
March 3rd, 2010 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
What actually is inflation? Is it inherent in a free market economy? Who or what is the cause? Can inflation be stopped, and how? What to do? Most people are desperately confused and searching for answers. Society is facing nothing short of a crisis. Words: 850
February 26th, 2010 | Posted in Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
America’s massive debt and unfunded liabilities make inflation the only viable option for today’s policymakers because when the value of future dollars is diminished, future obligations in those depreciated dollars are diminished.
Words: 2808
February 16th, 2010 | Posted in Inflation/Deflation | Read More »
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