Friday , 29 March 2024

Tag Archives: Presidential Cycle

The 4-year Presidential Cycle Effect On the Stock Market

As you know, Joe Biden was elected as the President of the United States in 2020. However, did you know that there is a typical four-year cycle that follows elections? The following chart represents the four-year cycle starting from 1900. It shows you the average four-year development of the Dow Jones over a hundred and twenty years. This also allows you to take a close look at developments within a year.

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Average Annual Returns During 4-Yr. Presidential Cycle

…Politicians try to juice up the economy during election years to improve their chances of re-election…but after the election is over and the next election is far away, they reverse the course and restrict the fiscal and monetary stimuli. Thus, major elections produce economic booms and busts, as politicians try to create an artificial boom before every election and take advantage …

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How Will the Markets Perform For the Balance of 2014?

The S&P 500 just extended its winning streak to seven straight quarters, and it's reasonable to wonder just how long it can continue...[That being said, however,] investors often enjoy a strong wind at their back in the fourth quarter, based on seasonal patterns and stock market history. Will 2014 be different [or will, as history suggests,] investors find a shiny new quarter during the next three months? [This article looks at these patterns to come to a better understanding of how the markets likely will perform for the balance of 2014.]

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These Indicators Suggest Stock Market Returns Are “Too Good To Be True”

Current macro conditions indicate that we are in a sweet spot for equity returns...that global growth is continuing and there is little or no tail risk in the immediate future. It's time to get long equities...but I have this nagging feeling that these market conditions are too good to be true. If you look, there are a number of technical and fundamental clouds on the horizon.

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History Suggests Stocks Should Go Up Approx. 18% in 2011! Here’s Why (+2K Views)

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the U.S. economy in 2011 [but not for U.S. stocks if the history of] the Presidential Cycle is any indication. The third year of a president’s [four year] term is typically the strongest producing an average annual gain of 14.12% for the S&P 500 and, under Democratic leadership, that number moves even higher to an average gain of 17.7%! Words: 436

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