Tag Archives: probability of recession

The Global Economy is on the brink of a recession with 58% of 29 OECD countries experiencing business cycle contractions [although] the U.S. seems to be plodding along despite woes outside her borders . Whilst global recession is certainly an alarm bell for the U.S economy, it is just that – a shot across the bows and not a direct hit. [As such,] there is no reason to hit any panic buttons...[yet other than] to monitor the U.S. recession models ever more closely for any signs of weakness. [Let me explain why this is the case.] Words: 601

This past week we received the latest PMI readings for the world as a whole (48.9), the eurozone (46.4), and for 30+ individual countries [Read: Telling It Like It Is: Latest PMIs Reveal Truth About the Global Economy]...and the latest numbers signal contraction and even more so when adjusted to reflect the concentration of GDP by countries/region. [Let me explain.] Words: 600

This past week we received the latest PMI readings for the world as a whole (48.9), the eurozone (46.4), and for 30+ individual countries [Read: Telling It Like It Is: Latest PMIs Reveal Truth About the Global Economy]...and the latest numbers signal contraction and even more so when adjusted to reflect the concentration of GDP by countries/region. [Let me explain.] Words: 600

50 economists forecast their estimates for real GDP over the next 6 quarters in a recent Wall Street Journal survey [and their projections, on average, show a modest increase through to the end of 2012 as the table below shows. In addition, they were asked] to forecast... the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months] and the results were quite surprising - quite. Let me show you.] Words: 600