Tag Archives: pundits

Even the foremost experts in most fields are no better than a flip of the coin at predicting what’s going to happen in their particular area of expertise. In fact, in one study those with 80% confidence in their forecasts were only right 45% of the time, so even worse than a coin flip.

Now marketing himself as a “rogue economist,” Harry Dent is forecasting “gold down to $750 an ounce, housing down 35%, oil down to $10 a barrel, the Dow down to 6,000, [and] a war between inflation and deflation” this year. His swami-like predictions in the past have been truly dreadful but, unlike most of his ilk, Dent has perhaps offered something actionable, if not in the way he intended. Let me explain.