Private Debt: the Major Problem – Deflation: the Painful Solution
July 3, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
When velocity is low the nation essentially winds up in a “liquidity trap” which is a situation where monetary policy is unable to stimulate the economy either through lowering interest rates or increasing the money supply. This was the condition that Japan found itself enveloped in from 1989 to present. We expect the same problem in this country and hope (really hope) to be wrong. Words: 955
Will We or Won’t We Have Another Recession Soon – The Case For and Against a Second Dip
June 21, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
I am worried about the possibility of a second dip – of a new recession beginning sometime in the next year or so – before the current recovery has had a chance to produce much improvement. Verbally-intuitively, the case for a second dip still seems pretty overwhelming to me. I take comfort in the knowledge that I tend to have a pessimistic bias, and in the fact that sophisticated quantitative models are generally putting the odds of a second dip quite low. On the other hand, successfully forecasting recessions has not been a strong point of quantitative models. Words: 1433
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The U.S. Dollar Index: A Deceptive Indicator of USD Strength
May 18, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
Most of the major financial news outlets and many investors have come to rely on the movements of the U.S. Dollar Index as a daily barometer of the U.S. dollar’s relative strength and weakness taking it on faith that the Dollar Index is the dollar – pure and simple. In reality, the Index offers a very distortive view of the movement of the dollar against the currencies that matter most. If anything, recent movements of the Index are a reflection of euro weakness rather than dollar strength. Words: 1019
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Embry: Gold Price to Go Parabolic in Near Future – For Good Reason!
April 21, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
As inflation rears its ugly head and future demand for gold promises to overwhelm mine supply, gold’s price will launch a parabolic rise from current levels in the near future. Gold has much, much further to go. Words: 536
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Quinn: Gold Going to $1500, Silver to $20 and Oil to $100 This Year
March 15, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
Here are [6 of my 11] my prognostications in the areas of the economy, domestic politics, global geopolitics, and the investment markets: The US Dollar will fall to record low; house prices will fall a further 10%; interest rates will rise; unemployment rate will rise to 11%; oil prices will exceed $100; the stock market will drop 30%. Let’s hope I’m wrong! Words: 681
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Belt-Tightening Too Soon Would Cause World to Sink into Deflationary Quicksand
March 3, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
While belt-tightening is indeed required cutting too fast would tip the West back into slump and kill tax revenues, solving nothing – a risk that austerity priests rarely acknowledge. Pacing is everything. Words: 620
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Why the Fed MUST Continue to Buy Its Own Debt
February 26, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The FED chose to solve the problem of too much debt by creating even more debt by taking the unprecedented action of buying it’s own debt under euphemisms like “quantitative easing” and “debt monetization” and also covert buying to artificially force negative real return rates of interest. Through this course of action, the FED so far has been able to turn what would have been a rapid deflationary collapse into a decaying inflationary depression which is euphemistically called “a recession that is now over”. Words: 955
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Some Predictions and Investment Advice for 2010
January 21, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
The economy has many issues, and any missteps by the Fed could result in either catastrophic inflation or a double dip recession. The politicians understand the relationship between jobs and re-election, and are desperately trying to get the former moving before September, when most voters will have made up their minds. Words: 1423
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$2 Trillion Treasury Issuance Will Cause Gold and Silver to Explode in 2010
January 21, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
Should the Federal Reserve continue to print money to gap a shortfall in Treasury sales, the creation of $2 trillion would create inflation of 25% overnight. Obviously, as in all markets, inflation will not come out of the woodwork for a period of months and possibly up to two years, but it will eventually reach the market. Subsequently, in 2010, investors of all types need to be incredibly prudent with their money and protect their assets with precious metals. Words: 465
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Will the Fed Engineer a Stock Market Crash to Flood the Bond Market With Much Needed Demand?
January 20, 2010 by Editor · Leave a Comment
Could the Fed be preparing another stock crash to flood the bond market with demand? Who knows but it would make plenty of sense to me. Words: 789
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