There has been an alarming development for the obscure, yet instructive Baltic Dry Index…[which] tracks the cost of shipping major raw materials (iron ore, coal, grain, cement, copper, sand and gravel, fertilizer and even plastic granules)…It is down 48.4% in the last month…[and] down 54.4% in the last three months. [Let me explain why and how to invest accordingly.] Words: 200
The unemployment rate declined [slightly in October] from 9.1% to 9.0%…[but a close look, in chart form, at the pattern of unemployment compared to the S&P 500, the extent of unemployment over 27 weeks duration, the ratio of employed people to those aged 16 and over, the average length of unemployment and how extensive unemployment has been in this most recent recession compared to each of the others over the past 60+ years, is very revealing as to how serious the situation is. It is very depressing, indeed.] Words: 601
With the October PMIs [having all been reported] I had another look at what to expect on the economic front with regard to economic growth in the major economic regions [Eurozone, U.S., Japan, China and the U.K. - and it is a mixed bag, to say the least. Let's take a look at a few charts.] Words: 475
I have a great deal of respect for Paul Krugman as an economist. He has a unique talent among economists for being able to make complex economic issues both understandable and interesting for the average person. [That being said,]…I am far less impressed with his abilities as a public policy commentator. [Let me explain.] Words: 567
50 economists forecast their estimates for real GDP over the next 6 quarters in a recent Wall Street Journal survey [and their projections, on average, show a modest increase through to the end of 2012 as the table below shows. In addition, they were asked] to forecast… the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months] and the results were quite surprising – quite. Let me show you.] Words: 600
This week’s rail data was somewhat mixed with total carloads showing a decline while intermodal jumped 4.2% YoY. [This suggests]…an economy that is growing modestly… It’s not a great environment, but it’s also misguided to get bogged down in the debate over a new recession. Words: 235
If you’re inclined to sit on the fence these days in the delicate art of anticipating the next phase of the business cycle, you’ll get no argument from the latest update on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monster index of indexes that encompasses 85 measures of U.S. economic activity. This benchmark has weakened this year but it’s still not flashing a formal prediction of economic contraction…[Let me explain.] Words: 255
Economic inflection points are seldom obvious but if we take the time to analyze all the data, there are at least five indicators that suggest another U.S. recession is not imminent. [Take a look.] Words: 920
Sorry. I don’t make the news. I just report it and I continue to believe the risks [facing the world] are so serious that…this is what will happen next. Soon Greece will default…[and] this will begin a chain reaction of [events leading to... I lay it all out in this short article and I think you will agree that it makes absolute sense.] Words: 912
The widespread stagnation in wages, rather than the level of unemployment, may offer a better explanation for the failure of economic growth to accelerate two years after the end of the recession. Workers’ ability to negotiate higher earnings won’t return until the job market strengthens, and flagging confidence has raised the risk that consumers may retrench. [Let us explain.] Words: 1018
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