Tuesday , 25 September 2018


Tag Archives: recession

This Indicator Is A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril

Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008? Well, while these warnings (called yield curve inversions) are quite uncommon, having occurred only three times in the last 35 years- followed relatively quickly by a recession - but are back in the news again, because we just may be nearing another inversion.

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Central Bank Bubble Will Burst and Result In A Recession & Bear Market

The unwinding of the "Central Bank Bubble" will be worse than either the Dot.Com Bubble or the Housing Bubble. It seems like most investors continue to show apathy even with the warnings by us and quite a few others of the "unintended consequences" of the central banks doing things that have never been done before. Those investors are in good company because it appears to us that the leaders of the major central banks of the world do not have any idea of the "unintended consequences" either.

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Unsustainable Debt-to-GDP Ratio Will Result in (Hyper)inflation

Central banking makes it possible for the government to expand the money supply by any amount, at any time deemed necessary and once (hyper)inflation is publicly seen as being the lesser evil of all options available for the government meeting its debt service, it cannot be dismissed out of hand that (hyper)inflation would be the consequence of an unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio.

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Currency Wars: Here’s What They’re Really All About

A currency war is a battle, supposedly an economic policy to cheapen a country's currency compared to that of others, to promote exports but the real reason, the one that’s less talked about, is that countries actually want to import inflation - a way of creating monetary ease and importing inflation. Let me explain.

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Call the “Smart Money’s” Bluff & Stay Invested – Here’s Why

Brace yourself! The stock market is ripe for a nasty selloff according to a number of politicians and even more market pundits - but not so fast. Two very reliable long-term recession indicators strongly suggest that a correction – or worse, the end of the bull market - is highly unlikely given the current state of the economy. Let me explain.

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Bubble-level Valuations Don’t Cause Bear Markets! These Factors Do

So much analysis we see and hear lately is concerned with whether the stock market is in a bubble or not. The truth of the matter, however, is that bear markets do not begin due to bubble-level valuations being reached and then bursting, but in anticipation of half a dozen mitigating factors as outlined in this article.

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