If you’re inclined to sit on the fence these days in the delicate art of anticipating the next phase of the business cycle, you’ll get no argument from the latest update on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monster index of indexes that encompasses 85 measures of U.S. economic activity. This benchmark has weakened this year but it’s still not flashing a formal prediction of economic contraction…[Let me explain.] Words: 255
Economic inflection points are seldom obvious but if we take the time to analyze all the data, there are at least five indicators that suggest another U.S. recession is not imminent. [Take a look.] Words: 920
Sorry. I don’t make the news. I just report it and I continue to believe the risks [facing the world] are so serious that…this is what will happen next. Soon Greece will default…[and] this will begin a chain reaction of [events leading to... I lay it all out in this short article and I think you will agree that it makes absolute sense.] Words: 912
The widespread stagnation in wages, rather than the level of unemployment, may offer a better explanation for the failure of economic growth to accelerate two years after the end of the recession. Workers’ ability to negotiate higher earnings won’t return until the job market strengthens, and flagging confidence has raised the risk that consumers may retrench. [Let us explain.] Words: 1018
Will global financial markets reach a breaking point during the month of October? Right now there are all kinds of signs that the financial world is about to experience a nervous breakdown. Massive amounts of investor money is being pulled out of the stock market and mammoth bets are being made against the S&P 500 in October. The European debt crisis continues to grow even worse and weird financial moves are being made all over the globe. Does all of this unusual activity indicate that something big is about to happen? Let’s hope not – but historically, the biggest stock market crashes have tended to happen in the fall. So are we on the verge of a “Black October”? Words: 1200
The latest economic data suggests that recession is returning to most advanced economies, with financial markets now reaching levels of stress unseen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The risks of an economic and financial crisis even worse than the previous one – now involving not just the private sector, but also near-insolvent sovereigns – are significant. So, what can be done to minimize the fallout of another economic contraction and prevent a deeper depression and financial meltdown? [Below I recommend 8 ways that would do just that.] Words: 1641
Over the past two months stock markets have crashed around the world and gold prices have soared as global investors decided that the U.S. has lost its race against time. A new recession is upon us before we even half-closed the output gap left open from the last recession. It means even larger deficits and an even weaker dollar. The price of gold and Treasury bonds is telling us that a full-blown international bond and currency crisis is approaching. There is no international policy mechanism available to stop the panic short of re-opening the gold window that the U.S. closed unilaterally and “temporarily” in 1971. [Let me explain.] Words: 3025
Michael Spence, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics, believes there’s “probably a 50%” chance of the global economy slipping into recession. Noriel Roubini disagrees and says flatly that a recession is coming and that it is a mission impossible now to stop it. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank places the odds at 85% of a recession. David Rosenberg, another very savvy economist, says that by 2012, the chance of a second recession is 99%. Peter Schiff, who with Roubini, correctly and accurately predicted the collapse on Wall Street and ensuing recession, thinks one is 100% certain. [Let's take a look at why they hold such views.] Words: 829
The Baltic Dry Index is often cited by economists as a bellwether of global economic activity. The index, which measures the price of transporting raw materials by sea, has now risen by more than 21% from its recent lows and is also up 16% in the last week alone …calling into question the advent of a global recession. [Let us explain.] Words: 292
The Philly Fed number has never been this low without the economy being in recession having just recorded the 21st-worst reading in over 43 years! [While we are not in an officially sanctioned recession yet this new survey strongly suggests that that unwelcomed time has come.] Words: 260
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