Tag Archives: recession

None of the three different statistical measures of financial stress released this week suggest any conditions in the financial markets that would indicate that the U.S. economy is in a recession already, and none of them are exhibiting any upward trends that would point to a pending recession. In fact, all three stress measures have been trending downward through 2012, indicating that there is less financial stress now than at the beginning of the year. [Take a look at what each has to say and judge for yourself.] Words: 571

The US Recession Probabilities Index is currently at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. Interestingly, however, I don’t see recession signals in the internal indicators that I follow and which have been right for a long time now so this clearly puts that opinion in the “this time is different” category - or does it? Words: 255

QE3 looks like a desperate act to feed money to large banks, offload MBS toxic waste from their balance sheets, devalue the dollar against houses, commodities, and other currencies and create significant collateral damage in the form of consumer price inflation according to a number of respected economists and critical thinkers on the subject of QE3. [Let's take a look at what they have to say.] Words: 1661

This presentation* by David Rosenberg, comes courtesy of Joe Weisenthal (www.businessinsider.com). I’ve disagreed with Rosenberg on the recession call in the USA for a long time now, but we’re on the same page about a lot of the macro trends. Here are three pertinent trends that are worth highlighting from the presentation. Words: 555

The evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession. We cite the following as evidence. Words: 548

Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna tracks payroll tax receipts as a measure of real-time labor market health [see an earlier article on that chart and a host of others here] and the latest data for the current quarter show receipts growing 6% year-over-year. [It brings into question all those purveyors of doom who claim that a recesssion is just around the corner.]

The permabears are coming out the woodwork. Bad, scary articles and news seem to attract more attention and eyeballs than good news articles or those that offer a counterbalanced view. Whenever someone gets interviewed on US TV, it’s for someone proclaiming the end of the expansion – you never see them interviewing someone offering a counter view of a more positive nature. This article gives you a balanced, opposing view to the tiresome popular perma-bear consensus so that you can make your own balanced decision. [As for our own conclusion, we don't see imminent recession. Here's why.] Words: 1315

The permabears are coming out the woodwork. Bad, scary articles and news seem to attract more attention and eyeballs than good news articles or those that offer a counterbalanced view. Whenever someone gets interviewed on US TV, it’s for someone proclaiming the end of the expansion – you never see them interviewing someone offering a counter view of a more positive nature. This article gives you a balanced, opposing view to the tiresome popular perma-bear consensus so that you can make your own balanced decision. [As for our own conclusion, we don't see imminent recession. Here's why.] Words: 1315

I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher....Let's take a look at why. >Michael "Mish" Shedlock< (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com) Words: 530

We are now at the mercy of oil and the commodity markets. Bernanke's plan to print our way to prosperity is destined to fail. Ultimately, he is just going to spike inflation and collapse the global economy, resulting in a worse downturn than what we saw in 2008/09. Let me explain. Words: 510