Tag Archives: recession

Do you own enough gold and silver for what lies ahead? If 10% of your total investable assets (i.e., excluding equity in your primary residence) aren't held in various forms of gold and silver, we...think your portfolio is at risk. Here's why. Words: 625

The classic argument is that, because 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, an increase in gasoline prices will cause a decrease in consumer spending, which will cause an economic decline. [My research, however, indicates that] the premise that higher oil prices will cause inflation and/or a recession is wrong. [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 1097

The almost universal consensus, even among mainstream orthodox economists, is pessimistic regarding the world economy. Even though their predictions understate the scope and depth of the crises, there are powerful reasons to believe that we are heading toward a steeper decline than what was experienced during the Great Recession of 2008 – 2009...[Let me explain.] Words: 1656

There has been an alarming development for the obscure, yet instructive Baltic Dry Index...[which] tracks the cost of shipping major raw materials (iron ore, coal, grain, cement, copper, sand and gravel, fertilizer and even plastic granules)...It is down 48.4% in the last month...[and] down 54.4% in the last three months. [Let me explain why and how to invest accordingly.] Words: 200

The unemployment rate declined [slightly in October] from 9.1% to 9.0%...[but a close look, in chart form, at the pattern of unemployment compared to the S&P 500, the extent of unemployment over 27 weeks duration, the ratio of employed people to those aged 16 and over, the average length of unemployment and how extensive unemployment has been in this most recent recession compared to each of the others over the past 60+ years, is very revealing as to how serious the situation is. It is very depressing, indeed.] Words: 601

With the October PMIs [having all been reported] I had another look at what to expect on the economic front with regard to economic growth in the major economic regions [Eurozone, U.S., Japan, China and the U.K. - and it is a mixed bag, to say the least. Let's take a look at a few charts.] Words: 475

I have a great deal of respect for Paul Krugman as an economist. He has a unique talent among economists for being able to make complex economic issues both understandable and interesting for the average person. [That being said,]...I am far less impressed with his abilities as a public policy commentator. [Let me explain.] Words: 567

50 economists forecast their estimates for real GDP over the next 6 quarters in a recent Wall Street Journal survey [and their projections, on average, show a modest increase through to the end of 2012 as the table below shows. In addition, they were asked] to forecast... the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months] and the results were quite surprising - quite. Let me show you.] Words: 600

This week’s rail data was somewhat mixed with total carloads showing a decline while intermodal jumped 4.2% YoY. [This suggests]...an economy that is growing modestly... It’s not a great environment, but it’s also misguided to get bogged down in the debate over a new recession. Words: 235

If you're inclined to sit on the fence these days in the delicate art of anticipating the next phase of the business cycle, you'll get no argument from the latest update on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monster index of indexes that encompasses 85 measures of U.S. economic activity. This benchmark has weakened this year but it's still not flashing a formal prediction of economic contraction...[Let me explain.] Words: 255