With all the attention being focused on whether or not there will be a sustainable recovery in 2010, the potential for a wave of sovereign-debt crises following the wake of the global recession has just recently started to appear on people's radar screens - and such a wave should not be surprising. Words: 2541
Read More »Return OF Capital vs. Return ON Capital – What's in Store for 2010?
When Bernanke announced back in 2009 that he saw "green shoots" in the U.S. economy, it was a green light for global investors to start dipping their toes back in the water. Gradually investors started feeling better about the world and as they felt better, they started taking on more risk. It was a shift in focus, away from the mandate of "return OF capital" back toward one of "return ON capital." So, what's in store for 2010? Will it be risk-aversion or risk-taking? Words: 794
Read More »A Look into the Future for Stocks, the Dollar, and Gold
The only, truly accurate and profitable way to invest in the markets is to understand and quantify the markets differing personalities, which is what the rigorous study of market cycles does for you. Right now, for instance, although we are starting to see more negative news come to the forefront (as compared to the last nine or 10 months where the market was rallying), I can assure, the negative news you are hearing will pale in comparison to the news that will come out in the months ahead as the 40-month cycle for stocks turns down. Words: 1065
Read More »"This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" – A Book by Reinhart and Rogoff (+3K Views)
Highly leveraged economies, particularly those in which continual rollover of short-term debt is sustained only by confidence in relatively illiquid underlying assets, seldom survive forever, particularly if leverage continues to grow unchecked. Words: 1264
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