At the end of November 2011 the U.S. behavioral indicator for the U.S. stock market, based on insights on investor psychology, touched the crisis threshold for the fifth time (1971,1979, 1986, 2006) since 1970. If the current case follows the four prior cases, we expect a similar positive return from November 2011 to the end of October 2012 as in the four prior periods followed by a decline somewhere between 15% and 30%. [Let me explain.] Words: 317
January 29th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Initial unemployment claims may be the most important economic indicator for the stock market in 2012. It is one of the three components of our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI), which is highly correlated with the S&P 500, [see graph below] so if initial unemployment claims remain under 400,000 and possibly continue to head lower during January, that would support the strong stock market rally that has kicked off the New Year so far. Words: 395
January 8th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Stocks and commodities are under pressure from the rising dollar. We have already seen a sizable pullback but there may be more to come in the next few trading sessions. While my negative view on stocks and precious metals will rub the gold and silver bugs the wrong way, I just want to point out what is unfolding so everyone sees both sides of the trade. Let’s take a look at some charts and dig right in. Words: 222
December 22nd, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
The past few years have seen the development of the notion that GLD and SLV represent uncorrelated plays on the market, making them safe haven bets for your portfolio. Looking at historical trends (aside from 2011), [however,] one would have to go back to 2007 to find a year where these two metals weren’t highly correlated to the S&P 500. For all of 2011, both ETFs have featured low correlation, but as recent trading weeks have shown, old habits die hard, as the two ETFs have fallen back into a highly correlated trend. Let’s take a look at the particulars.] Words: 672
November 17th, 2011 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing | Read More »
The S&P 500 index is…forming a “Three-Peaks and a Domed House” pattern and is currently in a phase transition from the “Basement” phase to the “First Floor” phase. [Take a look at these 2 chart and see what the implications could well mean.] Words: 1146
November 8th, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
The S&P 500 index is in the progress of potentially forming a “Three-Peaks and a Domed House” pattern as shown in the chart below. [Take a look and see what the implications could well mean.] Words: 823
November 4th, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Constructing a portfolio for the retirement years requires one to focus on portfolio risk or uncertainty while not neglecting return. If the portfolio asset allocation plan is too conservative, the return will not meet lifestyle expectations. Inflation is again on the rise and this needs to be taken into consideration when putting together a retirement oriented portfolio. Below is a combination of index ETFs that project respectable returns while holding down portfolio volatility. Words: 455
October 31st, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Mutual/ETFunds,Personal Finance,Retirement Planning | Read More »
Seasonality tells us that statistically the months from the end of October through the end of April are in fact the best months of the year for investing while the six months from May through October (the “sell in May and go away” strategy), are the worst but is there any validity to what’s sometimes known as “the Halloween indicator?” [Let's take a look.] Words: 460
October 21st, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
A look at the chart for SLV from September 2007 to August 2008 (11 months) and from November 2010 to October 2011 (11 months) is remarkably similar – almost identical in fact. Therefore, if silver continues to trace out a similar path to what transpired in 2008, what are the possible implications for stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals? Take a look at the following 19 charts for some possible outcomes. Words: 731
October 18th, 2011 | Posted in Asset Allocation,Investing | Read More »
There is more than enough reason to believe that U.S. stocks are in a bear market regardless of what percentage drop has taken place. [Let's take a look at stock momentum, various moving averages, volatility and certain technical indicators to see what they have to say in this regard.] Words: 700
October 18th, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
FACEBOOK
TWITTER
