Tag Archives: stock market correction

Our financial system is in far worse shape than it was just prior to the financial crash of 2008. The truth is that we are right on schedule for the next great financial crash. You can choose to ignore the warnings if you would like but, ultimately, time will reveal who was right and who was wrong and, unfortunately, I think I will be proven to have been right.

Who knows how long before the Dow Jones Index finally receives a well overdue market enema, but I can assure you of this, when it arrives it will be a VERY messy occasion!

A near-term market pullback of as much as 10% is likely but we're still in bull market cycle that has just begun to run. There are years left to go on this secular bull market and, indeed, Benjamin Graham's P/E formula implies a 2015 S&P price target of somewhere around 2476 to 2545.

Trying to predict markets more than a couple of days into the future is nothing more than a "wild ass guess" at best but, that being said, we can make some reasonable assumptions about potential outcomes based on our extensive analysis of these 6 specific price trend and momentum indicators.

The financial markets are drastically over-capitalizing earnings and over-valuing all asset classes so, as the Fed and its central bank confederates around the world increasingly run out of excuses for extending the radical monetary experiments of the present era, even the gamblers will come to recognize who is really the Wile E Coyote in the piece. Then they will panic.

Brace yourself! The stock market is ripe for a nasty selloff according to a number of politicians and even more market pundits - but not so fast. Two very reliable long-term recession indicators strongly suggest that a correction – or worse, the end of the bull market - is highly unlikely given the current state of the economy. Let me explain.

Despite a long list of major risks to the global economy, the trend for the stock market is still UP until proven otherwise. At this stage it is absolutely critical to be cautious and watch for signs of a market correction or peak, but it is our view that a recession won't take hold until the following 6 key indicators are triggered.

There are a number of potential pitfalls out there for the market but, right now, the behavior of the main catalysts for a major correction suggest that there continues to be more right than wrong with the market. Let me explain.

Some investors are sure we’re heading for a crash because we’ve had such an uninterrupted rise in stocks but these things can last much longer than most people realize. While a crash is never out of the realm of possibilities, just because stocks are up doesn’t mean they have to immediately crash. Eventually they will be right. It’s the timing that gets you on these type of calls.

The S&P 500 is now up over 180% since troughing in March 2009 and it has been almost 3 years since the stock market experienced a 10% correction. Historically, market corrections happen approximately every 2 years on average. [As such,] we think that this rally is getting very long in the tooth and we wouldn't be surprised if we have a healthy pullback in the coming weeks or months.