Thursday , 28 March 2024

Tag Archives: stock market crash

Stock Market Not Likely To Crash Soon & Here’s Why

History shows rather clearly that the stock market is prone to extreme events, aka crashes. The challenge is deciding when the risk for a repeat performance is unusually high... The leading factor, of course, is the business cycle but internal market issues can't be ignored either. With that in mind, I've developed what I think of as a crash-risk index for the U.S. stock market (S&P 500), which draws on signals from ten metrics that are reflecting different factors...

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Both Stocks & Bonds Could Decline By 75% – Yes, 75%! – In Coming 10 Years – Here’s Why (2K Views)

The current credit-bubble boom in stocks and bonds is getting long in tooth after 34 years of relentless expansion, and the rise of securities to 400% of GDP is reaching extremes that are increasingly difficult to support, much less push higher. As such, a reversion to generational lows is inevitable, and a valuation level around 50% of GDP for stocks is a fair target. This implies a 75% decline in both stocks and bonds within the next decade, if not sooner.

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Will End of 6-year Run in Stocks Be Any Different This Time Round?

On March 9th, 2009 the S&P 500 hit a low of 676.53 and, since that day, it has risen more than 200%. On only 2 other occasions within the last 100 years has the S&P 500 performed this well over a 6 year time frame. This has been great for investors but in both previous instances (1929 & 1999), the end result was utter disaster. Will it be different this time?

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