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Initial unemployment claims may be the most important economic indicator for the stock market in 2012. It is one of the three components of our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI), which is highly correlated with the S&P 500, [see graph below] so if initial unemployment claims remain under 400,000 and possibly continue to head lower during January, that would support the strong stock market rally that has kicked off the New Year so far. Words: 395
January 8th, 2012 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
Decisive policies must be urgently put in place to stop the euro area sovereign debt crisis from spreading and to put weakening global activity back on track. [If not we can expect to see a] massive escalation in economic disruption, an increase in the risk of a credit crunch [and] the global economy tipping into a recession. Words: 834
November 19th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
The unemployment rate declined [slightly in October] from 9.1% to 9.0%…[but a close look, in chart form, at the pattern of unemployment compared to the S&P 500, the extent of unemployment over 27 weeks duration, the ratio of employed people to those aged 16 and over, the average length of unemployment and how extensive unemployment has been in this most recent recession compared to each of the others over the past 60+ years, is very revealing as to how serious the situation is. It is very depressing, indeed.] Words: 601
November 9th, 2011 | Posted in Economy | Read More »
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate set by Congress of maximum employment and stable prices. During Chairman Bernanke’s most recent press conference he indicated that the Federal Reserve has done a better job of maintaining price stability while falling short of fostering maximum employment. [As such,] we believe the Federal Reserve will continue to increase the monetary base and weaken the dollar as long as unemployment remains elevated. While the economy (measured by real GDP) and the unemployment rate have not benefited from a substantial increase in the monetary base, the price of gold and silver have benefited from money printing. We believe this statement is quite important for monetary policy and for investors. [Let us explain further.] Words: 388
November 8th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
Canadians may wish to consider the underlying trends in inflation and unemployment before making major financial decisions. Recent unemployment data in Canada shows unemployment at 7.3% [vs. 9.0% in the U.S.] and inflation rising to an uncomfortable 3.2% [vs. 3.6% in the U.S. for a Misery Index of 10.5 vs. 13.6 in the U.S.]
November 7th, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
34% of Americans say gold is the best long-term investment, but how many of that 34% actually own it in the form of coins and bullion? No one has that figure, but my guess would be less than 1% of the total population, and when global investment demand doubles or triples (or more) from current levels — a distinct possibility — and you paint a whole new picture for gold. You begin to understand why gold is not in a bubble at all but, in fact, is in a long-term secular bull market that is still amassing considerable potential energy. Words: 1092
October 25th, 2011 | Posted in Gold/Silver,Investing | Read More »
The widespread stagnation in wages, rather than the level of unemployment, may offer a better explanation for the failure of economic growth to accelerate two years after the end of the recession. Workers’ ability to negotiate higher earnings won’t return until the job market strengthens, and flagging confidence has raised the risk that consumers may retrench. [Let us explain.] Words: 1018
September 21st, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
Most Americans don’t understand what is happening because neither the mainstream media nor our politicians are telling them the truth. We are being told that we just need to accept our lower standard of living and most Americans seem willing to accept that reality because they keep sending most of the exact same bozos back to Washington D.C….Why are the majority of Americans not screaming to their political “representatives” that they are as mad as hell and not willing to take it any more? Words: 1270
July 23rd, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
Is a second recession in so short of a time in the offing? It certainly seems that way. The hope for a continued recovery has grown dim lately as many of the economic indexes are moving towards contractionary territory… There are several concerns pressing the U.S. economy and, in the words of David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, “one small shock” could send us into a second recession. [We, for our part, believe that even] another round of Quantitative Easing by the Fed…may not be enough to offset the real problems facing the U.S. economy. [Let's take a closer look.] Words: 1295
July 23rd, 2011 | Posted in Economic Overview,Economy | Read More »
To move up from the current 12,600 level to 20,000 by the summer of 2014, the Dow would need to rise about 16.5% each year or about 58% in a three-year period and in the past 25 years the Dow has risen by this much on at least 13 occasions. During those times, there was only one period of sustained annual gains, when the Dow rose an average of 26% from 1995 through 1999. The key question: what would it take to justify a three-year, steady, robust gain? It all comes down to corporate profits [and the extent to which] multiple investors are willing to assign [dollars] to these profits. [Let me explain.] Words: 761
July 10th, 2011 | Posted in Investing,Stock Indices | Read More »
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