Tag Archives: volatility index

Trying to predict markets more than a couple of days into the future is nothing more than a "wild ass guess" at best but, that being said, we can make some reasonable assumptions about potential outcomes based on our extensive analysis of these 6 specific price trend and momentum indicators.

[No wonder you are confused!] Several technical and fundamental indicators have flashed caution to no avail and this has given way to an uncomfortable tension beneath the surface as investors try to find answers while keeping pace with performance. Below are 10 mixed signals about the near-term direction and theme of the markets.

Remember the game Musical Chairs? It seems that investors on Wall Street have been playing this game recently, as more and more we are seeing signs that the current bull market may be reaching its final stages. Each new sign that appears represents just one more chair being taken away from the game. The question investors need to ask is "where will I be when the music stops"?

There is a debate on Wall Street between those who believe we have entered into the next “secular bull market” and those who believe that the current market advance is predicated on artificial stimulus and, as such, the “secular bear market” remains intact. Take a look below at a series of charts designed to allow you to draw your own conclusions and convey your view in the comments section at the very bottom of the page. Words: 719; Charts: 12

Comparing the level of the Vix Index of implied equity volatility to the level of the 10-yr Treasury yield is a handy way of gauging how extreme market sentiment is. The Vix index is a good proxy for fear (because the implied volatility of options determines how expensive it is to purchase options in order to limit one's downside risk), and the 10-yr Treasury yield is a good proxy for the market's long-term outlook for growth and inflation. When you combine a high level of the Vix with a low level of the 10-yr, you have a market that is not only very fearful but also very pessimistic about the future. [IMO, however, we may well have time on our side. Here's what I mean by that.] Words: 730

You've probably heard about hedge funds, those super-secretive private pools where millionaires stash their money. Yes, sometimes they blow up. But many hedge funds have a long history of good returns in all market conditions. They do this by combining sophisticated trading techniques with long and short positions in various markets. The problem is that the best hedge funds aren't available to everyday investors in small amounts. Words: 1078