It is impossible not to read some source…touting the “fact” that the price of gold and silver will be…[“$x”, “$y”, etc.] in the “coming months” or in the “next year or two,” etc. The market, however, does not echo those…sentiments because that is exactly what they are, sentiments. When it comes to sentiments or opinions, regardless of how close to source or how well reasoned, the market does not care.
The charts are all-knowing, and they present everything known about the price, sans any opinion(s). Just deal with the facts and plan accordingly. Trust the markets – they never lie – [and this is what they are saying about the price of gold and silver in 2013]. Words: 1889; Charts: 6
So writes Michael Noonan (http://edgetraderplus.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Gold And Silver – Opposing Forces Very Under-Rated. Ode On A [Un]Grecian Chart.
This article is presented by www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com(A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Noonan goes on to say, in part:
Follow the Market’s Lead
One of the better “resolutions” one can make going into 2013, and beyond, [is] to follow the market’s lead…[instead of] trying to lead it, waiting for it to catch up to your trading acumen. [Sure, sure, you might reply,] but:
What about the shortages in silver production vs. demand?
What about the overly re-re-hypothecated gold leases from central banks that cannot possibly cover actual demands for gold?
What about the possibility that all of Germany’s (and other countries?) gold is gone and so much of it is being transferred to the East?
What about (insert whatever issue you wish discussed, here)?
Yes, well, what about it! That information…has been known for quite some time so it is already “priced into the market.”
It does not matter how well-informed your sources are.
It does not matter how accurate the figures are for available supply vs. demand. The market is all knowing, and it is ahead of you, and it is responding to forces about which you are not aware…
It does not matter how much gold there is, or isn’t.
It does not matter where the gold is, or isn’t.
The market is telling you…all you need to know. Everything finds its way into the market, and if you would just ignore all else and follow the ultimate known fact, that being the current price of anything, then you have the answer right in front of you. The problem is, too many cannot reconcile the current price of gold and silver relative to their expectations. [They cannot see the truth staring them in the face.]
As John Keats, [who, incidentally,] would have made an excellent technical analyst [given his ability of]…drawing out the paradoxical nature of things, said in From ‘Ode On A Grecian Urn’ : ‘Beauty is Truth, Truth Beauty’ — that is all Ye know of earth, and all ye need to know.
This is how we see charts. Everything you need to know is contained within them because they are based on truth. What truth? The ultimate decisions to buy or sell made by the collective forces of the marketplace. Anything else that does not get translated directly in the market is simply an opinion, of no factual value because the market only recognizes actual transactions.
That is the truth and the beauty of the markets. They provide you factual commitments, unadorned by uncommitted interpretive opinions. That is all ye need to know on earth. Learn to listen to what the market is saying, and not what others are saying about the market.
This is not to say that markets cannot be manipulated and factors grossly distorted, for even if they are, those manipulation and distortions are what is reflected in current [prices], like it or not.
Most who speculate in the markets, to the extent they rely upon charts, look at daily or intra day time frames. Smart money, what we call the “controlling forces” of a market, use higher time frames, for they are not concerned with day-to-day activity. Their positions and influence necessitate that they move over a more extended period of time, and one can get a greater sense of their intent from the higher time frames.
When we talk about collective forces of the marketplace, it includes the most well-informed insiders, central bankers, the largest dealers, with availability to information and research outsiders may never know or learn about, until after the fact, all the way down to investors, fundamentalists, speculators, even the ephemeral day-traders. What they all have in common is that they are the market, once they make a decision to execute a buy/sell that influences and determines the price at any given point in time. Those executed decisions, regardless of how well or ill-informed, become market facts that comprise fluctuations, and they show up as the high, low, and close on a chart for any chosen time frame.
Despite the relentless calls for gold and silver “taking off,” which they have not, of late, the elephants in the room, governments, central bankers and major brokers, plus exchanges, have been vastly under-rated in their ability to keep the prices of gold and silver suppressed as much as they have. They are not about to throw in the towel and give up their Wizard of Oz controls. Ultimately, they are doomed to fail, but when does “ultimately” kick in, and to what degree of damage before it does, remains unknown.
One thing you should know about the opposition, in whatever form it is in, ultimately: It will not stop. It will not quit. It will destroy everything that gets into its way in order to suit its needs.
What the Charts Are Saying
The charts have been saying as much….If gold and silver are going to go to such high price levels, why are charts saying the opposite? This end of year’s gold closing, actually Monday, is about mid-range the bar, a draw between the forces of supply and demand, but the range was the smallest in several years. Neither buyers nor sellers were able to extend the range further in either direction.
The arrow in the chart points to the smallest range in Qtr 2, 2012. It was an attempt to go lower that failed.
Fact #1: The fact, and keep in mind the focus is on the indisputable facts contained in the charts, is thatprice [of gold] did not go lower…[because of] strong support at that level.
Fact #2: Another observable fact is how the last 5 quarterly bars have been overlapping. Anytime you see bars overlapping, it show[s] a struggle between buyers and sellers trying to exert control. The poor end of the year close for gold says buyers have not been keeping an upper hand, and sellers are maintaining relentless pressure.
Fact #3: Back to our normal chart. If we view the rally in August as a breakout from a right triangle pattern, it is taking now 3 months to correct a 2 month rally, and the bars correcting are smaller, telling us there is no downward ease of movement. This suggests sellers are meeting more resistance, but still prevailing.
What To Expect in 2013
2013 will be an interesting years, and its start could be signaling more of what we have seen for the past 15 months. While accumulation of the physical metal is strongly recommended, trading in the paper futures will have to be much more select, buying breaks, not breakouts.
Fact #4: There is no question that silver remains relatively weaker to gold, as the charts clearly show. Some think silver may outperform gold, moving forward, and it has, on occasion. That is an opinion that may or may not hold true. Buying and personally holding the physical is strongly recommended, as was stated for gold. For now, silver has a very large supply factor hanging over future progress, based upon the closes of 2011 and 2012.
Fact #5: The more detailed Qtrly chart [below] has one positive aspect: 26.20+ area held like a rock. We could see yet another test and possible new low. That is not a prediction but a point of view not to be dismissed for the year ahead. As with gold, the overlapping of bars shows the struggle between the forces of sellers and buyers, the edge with sellers.
The comments in the following chart read as follows:
The Qtrly chart is more of a mixed message. There is obviously strong support at the 26 area, and bullish spacing remains a positive. (Bullish spacing is where the current swing low is above the last swing high, indicating buyers not willing to wait to see of the last swing high will be retested. It reflects a sense of urgency to buy.) The close at the end of this year says price should make a lower low, at least nominally, (Compared to last Qtr low only). There are times when a low end close can lead to a reversal. Not sure that is the case, here. (Just another possibility of which to be aware.)
The fact that silver cannot get and stay above 35 says how much work there is to overcome sellers. 2013 should be more of the same, at least for the first half.
Fact #6: As with gold, an unusually large bar most often foretells of a protracted trading range to follow. Not only did that hold true for silver, the trading range was all under a 50% retracement area, telling us how rally attempts have been weak, and also a signal from the market that $50, $100, $250 silver is not on the immediate horizon.
It does not take a crystal ball, nor a Seer to look ahead into 2013 and know, almost beyond a doubt, that silver has its work cut out for the next several months, and one should be very careful when trading futures, while still buying the physical with impunity.
We did not need to know of any “story” behind either precious metal. The charts are all-knowing, and they present everything known about the price, sans any opinion(s). Just deal with the facts and plan accordingly. Trust the markets. They never lie.
One of our favorite charts is the oscillator which shows the probability of gold returning to its mean after a dramatic rise or fall. We believe it helps investors put the current correction in context with historical moves and determines potential buying and selling opportunities. [Here’s what the oscillator chart and several other factors are telling us about the prospects for higher prices for gold in 2013.] Words: 539; Charts: 4
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
My Fractal Gold chart work is a direct comparison of Gold, today, to the late 70’s Gold Parabola. Thus, “timing” is taken directly from the late 70’s cycle, with price targets created from a combination of the late 70’s Gold price and different technical analysis techniques. We developed a price target back in 2006/ 2007 for Gold to reach the $10,000 to $12,000 range during this Gold Bull and we still stand by that forecast. Let me explain where we are at this point in time.
We’ve been surprised at the recent action in the precious metals complex. During the recent correction the shares were showing quite a bit more strength than the metals. Then the shares took a dive below support yet the metals maintained their recent lows! How do we interpret this wild volatility in the relationship between the shares and the metals? Quite often we look at daily and weekly charts. Now is the time to take a look at the monthly charts which can help us get a better read on the larger trends at hand. Words: 636
[Here is a summary of my]…thoughts on the 2011 gold price peak relative to the last time a long term bull market ended (back in 1980): Long-term bull markets almost always end with a bang, not a whimper, and last year’s price peak was clearly the latter. A 25% rise over a period of about two months last year [does not an] end-of-cycle, blow-off top [make]. No, I think there’s still some room to run for gold if for no other reason than that we haven’t even come close to the “mania” stage that characterizes the end of long-term market moves…[Let me explain further.] Words: 359; Charts: 1
I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
Since the Financial Crisis erupted in 2007, the US Federal Reserve has engaged in dozens of interventions/ bailouts to try and prop up the financial system…and the amount of money printed is absolutely staggering. As a result of this, inflation hedges, particularly Gold, have been soaring…[but] for gold, for example, to hit a new all time high adjusted for inflation, it would have to clear at least $2,193 per ounce. If you go by 1970 dollars (when gold started its last bull market) it would have to hit $4,666 per ounce. Words: 581
There are many predictions for the price of silver. Some say it will crash to nearly $20, and others proclaim $100 by the end of 2012. The problem is that some predictions are only wishful thinking, others are obvious disinformation designed to scare investors away from silver, and many are not grounded in hard data and clear analysis. Other analyses are excellent, but both the processes and analyses are difficult to understand. Is there an objective and rational method to project a future silver price that will make sense to most people? Yes, there is! [And here it is!] Words: 1071
We now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave which is still targeted to reach $4,500. [Let me explain in detail (with charts) how and why my most recent analyses confirm my earlier target of $4,500.] Words: 1085
This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct [see my article entitled “Alf Field: Correction in Gold is OVER and On Way to $4,500+!” and I have settled on] a target price of $158.34 for silver. [Let me explain how I came to that specific price.] Words: 850
Personally, based on the fundamentals at hand and the fact that Gold doubled its log channel around this point in the cycle; I expect Silver to bust up out of its log channel in 2013. Initially, I look for Silver to reach the $60 to $68 level, first and hold open the possibility for Silver to do much more on the upside as the 70’s Silver Chart reflects.
Thanks to this similarity in events, as well as the similarity in sequence, of the price movement of silver from the beginning of 1966 to the beginning of 1980 with the end of 1999 to the end 2013, my analysis suggests that silver will comfortably pass $150 by that date. Let me explain my rationale. Words: 338