So many headlines are saying “$5,000 Gold; $10,000 Gold; Silver, The Investment of the Decade;” etc, etc, etc. Will that happen? A history of failed fiat currencies says “yes”. When will it happen? That is the question few articles address because they simply have no clue, beyond their sensationalized headlines. Who can best answer that question? It is not “who can”, but “what can”, and that comes from the market itself – ever the most reliable source. The answers may not always satisfy, but the market is never wrong [and this is what the market is saying]. Words: 590
So writes Michael Noonan (http://edgetraderplus.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Gold And Silver – Where Is The Rally? What Is Missing?.
This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Noonan goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
What can be said with certainty is that before gold and silver can go up, they first have to stop going down.
- the dire headlines about failed currencies and countries;
- the purported PM shortages;
- the lack of available physical metal to fulfill futures/ETF contact obligations;
- the huge purchases by China, India, and Russia;
- the Western countries over-hypothecating gold holdings;
- the empty central bank vaults;
- the tungsten-filled bars being delivered,
you name it, are well-known by controlling market forces. It has all been stated, restated, then stated again, yet the current price of gold and silver do not reflect these “realities.” Why? Because consideration is not being given to those in power and their ability to hold onto that power, at all costs.
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The outright lies being fed to the world’s public, at least in Europe and the United States, continue to dominate headlines by the bought-and-paid-for television and print media. Where is the outrage? What little there is comes from the relatively small community of “fringe” bloggers – the best truth-tellers – and those who have been consistently buying physical gold and silver. Unfortunately, they are no match for the powerful forces that will destroy whatever gets in their way, be it a country drowning in debt, salvaging it with yet more debt, or the debasing of one’s own fiat currency, to keep the lie alive. Right now, the lies are winning. They have to, in order for central bankers to keep power over everyone and everything else.
Until you start seeing currencies collapse…$5,000 or $10,000 gold and $200 or more silver are not [going to be] in the picture, and the charts are telling you as much. Yes, price is being manipulated by four primary large banks each and every day…[but to suggest that] the exchange prices do not reflect the realities of the market is [just] not true. The reality is that the manipulators are still in charge, and for as long as they are, the price of gold and silver will remain where they are. Were it otherwise, you would see the price of gold and silver considerably higher.
For now, the market is saying the suppression of the price of gold and silver is alive and well. The operative words are: “For now.” Until you start seeing price move higher, the market is sending the message that precious metals are locked into a protracted trading range….Sentiment and bias aside, the market is telling a story that differs from the PM community’s beliefs and expectations, at least for now, and that is reality.
Trading ranges last until they stop, and this one has not yet stopped…The market is at a critical juncture, and it will provide us with some valuable information based on how price develops, starting next week.
To see all the charts, starting with weekly gold, including detailed explanations go HERE.
Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
*http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-where-is-the-rally-what-is-missingIf you’re new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!)
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The precious metals complex is arguably at its most bearish sentiment since the start of the bull market 12 years ago. Either the bull market is over or this will prove to be a tremendous buying opportunity. It’s clear that anyone who doesn’t believe in Gold for the long-term has sold and judging from the sentiment indicators, Gold is now in much stronger hands than when it was trading at these prices at the 2012 and 2011 lows. Despite all of the bearish sentiment, the panic and bad-mouthing, Gold (and Silver) has maintained its consolidation. Thus, if Gold is able to hold this support and turn higher, it should approach $1750 to $1800 faster than one would think. This year will go down in history as one of the best buying opportunities for both the metals and the stocks. Words: 675; Charts: 3
An analysis of surprising similarities between the 5 major spikes in the price of gold since 2001 suggests that if those similarities were applied to the 5th price spike (August, 2011) going forward that it would not be unreasonable to expect a spike to $2,600 in June or July of this year and another spike – to somewhere between $4,700 and $5,050 – in January/February of 2015.
Analyst after analyst (in excess of 170 at last count) has been forecasting what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 43 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 400
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Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated in the Pareto Principle where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time. That being the case it would appear that gold and silver could conceivably top out around $9,000 per troy ounce and $250/ozt respectively .This is not a prediction of future prices of gold and silver; it is an indication of what could happen in a speculative bubble environment based on the history of previous bubbles. Words: 1280; Charts: 1
When the price of gold is mentioned as costing “x dollars per troy ounce” do you fully appreciate the signifance of the term “troy”? When looking to buy gold jewellery do you fully understand what the difference is between an item that is 10 “karat” gold and another item stamped 18 “karat” gold (other than that it is much more expensive)? Let me explain. Words: 587
< noscript>I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. Once $1800 is taken out on the upside the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. [Below is my analysis and some charts on the situation.] Words: 434; Charts: 2
The fact that nobody really knows with absolute certainty where gold will really go from today onward makes people try to make their own guesses about what can happen with the yellow metal. One of the methods to do that is to look back into past situations and try to estimate if what is happening now is somehow similar to those past events. The situation in the gold market today is different than the one in 1980 in a few important areas. Even if past patterns don’t give you any certainty, though, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty. Let us analyze that in more detail. Words: 1260; Charts: 2
The timing of this article may seem incongruous given the current weak performance of gold and gold stocks but that was the identical situation in each of the past manias – both the metal and the equities didn’t excel until the frenzy kicked in. The following documentation (exact returns from specific companies during this era are identified) is actually a fresh reminder of why we think you should hold on to your positions – or start accumulating them, if you haven’t already. (Words: 1987; Tables: 7)
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
Looking at the recent Gold Miners price action and crash-like conditions, I cannot hide my excitement. As we judge the recent cyclical bear market within the longer term secular uptrend, we can see that Gold Miners are becoming very attractive. Whether it is the technically oversold levels that only occur a handful of times over a generation, the rock bottom valuations on nominal or relative basis, or the extreme sentiment that the overall sector is going through, all of these indicators point to one conclusion: we are fast approaching a major buying opportunity. [I support that contention below with the use of 8 charts and a full explanation of each.] Words: 1133; Charts: 8
The number, market cap and currencies of the constituents of the HUI, XAU, GDX, XGD and CDNX indices differ considerably from each other and, as such, each index presents a different picture of what is really happening in the precious metals marketplace. This article analyzes the make-up of each index to reveal the biases of each to arrive at the answer to the question in the title. Words: 1026
…Even in these challenging times there have been many great winners in the natural resource sector. I have been fortunate, lucky or smart to have racked up some nice gains through the years. I have been consistently picking winners, big winners, monster winners for years – a string of 10 years of 500% plus winners and more, sometimes much more, year after year – …[so] my message to you is simple: follow me! Your only question should be “Which of my current positions will be the next big winners?” Words: 804; Table: 1
As with most small cap sectors, someone approaching silver juniors faces a lack of good information and massive company-specific risk that cries out for either months of in-depth research or immediate diversification….Madison NJ Pure Funds hopes to solve that problem by offering instant exposure to 26 names with the introduction of their PureFunds ISE Junior Silver Small Cap Miners Explorers ETF (SILJ). Words: 290; Table: 1
Gold stocks are down between 20% and 30% over the past year yet, in that same timeframe, the price of the gold has risen. As a result, sentiment toward gold stocks is pitiful. Even diehard gold bugs are tired of losing money in gold stocks and have been dumping their shares in disgust. This article discusses 4 main reasons I can think of why gold stocks might be so cheap. Words: 444
The mining stocks have been a disaster if you’ve invested in the average fund, GDX or GDXJ and if you’ve invested in the wrong stocks, they’ve been a total disaster and you will now hate the sector forever. We’ve certainly been surprised by this protracted struggle. In my articles you’ve heard me talk about accumulating on weakness, buying support, being patient and waiting for better opportunities. Folks, this next week is one of those opportunities. The gold stocks are setting up similarly to the bottom in 2005 [and, as such,] are set to test a major bottom and could be on the cusp of a major reversal. Let me explain. Words: 438; Charts: 3
Sentiment in the precious metals sector is in the toilet yet the fundamentals for the sector are off the walls positive. That is not secret, but it is what creates huge market moves in the direction of the fundamentals. In fact, market management will never move price against the underlying fundamentals for too long a period of time.
With the Bank of Japan’s latest move to fight deflation and seemingly to start another round of global competitive currency devaluation, it…makes sense to hold some gold in a portfolio. However, I remain of the opinion that it makes no sense for gold bulls to hold gold stocks over bullion. [This article explains why that is the case.] Words: 281
As we begin 2013, there has been an important shift in regards to precious metals…the decoupling that has taken place between the equity market and the precious metals complex…[which] began nearly 17 months ago (decouplings of three or six months are not significant). Since the Euro crisis in summer 2011, the equity market has rallied nearly 30% and reached a five-year high, but gold stocks are down by more than 30%…[and, as such,] precious metals cannot begin an impulsive sustained bull move if the equity market continues to move higher. The equity market has to struggle with resistance and begin a mild cyclical bear move. While over the near-term precious metals can confirm a higher low, the 2013 success of the sector depends on the struggles of conventional stocks. [This article explains why that is the case and uses several charts to illustrate the point.] Words: 899
It’s amazing! Every day I learn something new. I have just come across a very powerful tool that identifies market tops and bottoms in both the gold price and the gold mining industry valuation. Let me share it with you. Words: 352; Charts: 4
Seeing the S&P 500 outperform gold and seeing gold stocks get decimated…has been enough to create suicidal sentiment…in the precious metals (PM) sector…but, as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market…[are expressed,] the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower. The bigger picture hasn’t changed and isn’t going to for some time [so] keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don’t let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what STILL promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 and might even go below 1 this cycle. [Let me explain.] Words: 873
President Obama will be sworn into office for a second term on January 21 and that’s good news if you own gold stocks. Why? Because gold stocks, [as represented by the XAU] have increased, on average, by 20% during inaugural years since 1985 (28% in 2005; 36% in 2003). While there’s no real rhyme or reason as to why gold stocks thrive in inauguration years – statistical anomaly or otherwise – it is yet another reason to buy gold stocks right now. Words: 312; Charts: 1