The Swimsuit Issue Indicator says that U.S. equity markets perform better in years when an American appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated’s annual issue as opposed to years when a non-American appears on the cover. [What is the nationality of this year’s cover model? Can we expect returns above the norm or will we see a year of underperformance for the S&P 500 this year? Read on.] Words: 323 ; Table: 1
So says Bespoke Investment Group (http://www.bespokeinvest.com/) in edited excerpts from an article* posted on Seeking Alpha under the title Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue: Score Another For Bulls.
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The article goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
Sports Illustrated has confirmed that the cover model of this year’s Swimsuit Issue is once again America’s own Kate Upton.
The table below highlights the annual total return of the S&P 500 since 1978…For each year, we also show the country from which that year’s Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue cover model came from as well as a link to the cover.
Since 1978, an American has now appeared on the cover of the annual issue in 18 different years:
- The average total return of the S&P 500 during the 18 prior years has been a gain of 14.4% with positive returns 88.9% of the time.
Of the 17 years where a foreigner appeared on the cover:
- the S&P 500 has averaged a total return of 10.8% with positive returns 76.5% of the time.
To be sure, we should note that the S&P 500’s 38.5% decline in 2008 when an American appeared on the cover caused the spread between the two performance numbers to narrow considerably (somebody check Marissa Miller’s birth certificate).[Click on each of the 35 hyperlinks below to see the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue cover model for that year.]
[As can be seen above,] last year the Swimsuit Indicator worked like a charm as the S&P 500 saw a total return of 16.0% with Kate Upton’s first cover. Bulls can only hope that the encore (for the market) is equally as good….
Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
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