Many on Wall Street are singing “Happy Days Are Here Again.” For them, that is probably the case. They finally have something to sell that will bring the rubes back into the markets….Fear is ebbing and greed is coming back. Those on the outside looking in are rounding up cash so that they don’t get left behind. The shills assist them with their pictures of economic recovery, new era crap and whatever other nonsense they can peddle successfully. So the cycle goes, as it has since the New York Stock Exchange came into existence. We are in another game of musical chairs where the music is playing joyfully. As in all such events, there are too few chairs to accommodate the participants when the music stops – and it always does! Words: 660
So writes “Monty Pelerin” (www.economicnoise.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled The Final Con.
This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Pelerin goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
There is no economic justification for the level of these markets, at least in the sense of improvements to the real economy. The economy is in worse shape than it was several years ago, made so via massive government interventions. Debt has been piled onto governments, corporations and individuals. It is not serviceable, certainly not at market-determined interest rates. Artificially low interest rates prolong the game, but do so by further corrupting economic decisions and the economy.
Michael Pento explains why markets have done so well recently:
When central bankers dedicate their existence to re-inflating asset bubbles, it shouldn’t at all be a surprise to investors that they eventually achieve success. Ben Bernanke has aggressively attempted to prop up the real estate and equity markets since 2008. His efforts to increase the broader money supply and create inflation have finally supported home prices, sent the Dow Jones Industrial average to a record nominal high and propelled the bond bubble to dizzying heights.
The same nonsense that got us into the mess — bubble-blowing — is the strategy for getting us out of the mess. That is all the Fed knows and it is all that is left for the government. This is not an economic strategy. No economist worth his salt would propose such a “solution.” This is a classic political solution — buy some time by making the problem appear to go away. Kicking the can is what politicians do best. Move the problem down the road and we’ll worry about it then (preferably after the next election). Never mind that the problem is made worse by doing so. Live for the now. Worry about tomorrow when tomorrow comes and then it will be today and repeat the same political fix.
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Will this fix work? Of course not, at least on any basis but the short-term. The laws of economics cannot be repealed. Arrogant politicians may believe they can suppress them and they are correct, but only in the short-run. How will this turn out? Not well, according to Mr. Pento:
The ramifications for investors and the economy will be profound. Not only will the economy move gradually toward a pronounced condition of stagflation, but, more importantly, the bubbles being created by the Fed will be far greater and more devastating than any other in history. Equity and real estate prices are already stretched far beyond what their underlying fundamentals can support but they are nothing compared with the distorted valuations being applied to U.S. sovereign debt. The bursting of the bond bubble will be exponential[ly] worse than the deflation brought on by the NASDAQ and real estate debacles. It is sad to conclude that the middle class is set up to get slaughtered even worse than they did when the previous two bubbles burst.
The economy is heading for unprecedented volatility between rampant inflation and deflation courtesy of Ben Bernanke’s sponsorship of the $7 trillion increase in new Federal debt since 2008. Investors need to plan now while they still have time before the economic chaos begins.
Better prepare! The tragedy that lies ahead is apt to make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.
Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
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Taking profits is rarely a bad idea, and staying fully invested at these levels seems foolish. That is why it might pay to raise some capital now, before the sell in May strategy comes up. Having a core position of equities along with some dry powder and keeping a look out for short-term trading opportunities is how I plan to play this market through 2013. [This article presents 5 specific reasons why it might be wise sell in May and go away – or even sooner – this year.] Words: 1280
The mainstream financial press would like us to believe that because the S&P 500 and Dow 30 are at or near their record highs that it must mean we’re nearing the end of the current bull market and, as such, now must be a terrible time to buy stocks. Let’s not jump to any conclusions, though. Instead, let’s do our own due diligence to find out. Hint: If you’ve been stuffing cash under the mattress since the last market crash, you might want to finally go deposit it in your brokerage account. Here’s why… Words: 420
It’s that time again. The Dow surpassed its all-time high and the S&P 500 is not that far from the tops of 1553 on March 24, 2000 and 1576 on October 9, 2007. Just as in 2000 and 2007, the economic, valuation and political background does not support the budding euphoria. [Let us explain precisely why that is the case.] Words: 680
There have been 6 previous Greedometer warnings – 5 of them real world, 1 from back testing alone – in the 7 years that the Greedometer (or parts that formed its predecessor) have been used in the real world, and there have been zero missed calls, and zero false alarms. The 7th warning began in January and in late February,the Greedometer gauge reached an epic 7900rpm which is marginally higher than the 7700rpm maximum reading seen 3 months prior to the S&P500 peak in October 2007. [This article outlines the development and successes of the Greedometer and the new Mini Greedometer and what they are predicting for the stock market in 2013.] Words: 1420
The Dow has surpassed its all-time record high – set in October 2007 – and the S&P 500 is not far behind? Is this the early stage of another great bull market? Let’s look back at the two previous times when the S&P 500 set new all-time highs and see if we can learn something. Wait…first put your “this time it’s different” glasses on. OK, let’s go. Words: 430; Charts: 1
The S&P500 is likely to achieve a secular (long term) peak this month, then drop to the 500s by July-August 2013. This article explains why. Words: 180
History shows that when investors experience a rapid decline in the amount of available cash in their brokerage account to spend/invest quickly such “negative net worth” leads to major corrections in the stock market. Currently such is the case so can we expect another such decline or will it be different this time?
The S&P 500 is on its way to building a “Domed House” and to challenge multi-year highs, or even all-time highs, in the process. Based on the forecast of my proprietary Long Wave Index, the broad market should be in a short-term bullish time-window until March 21st/13 by which time the “roof” phase of the formation should be complete with the S&P 500 having reached a projected peak of 1570. Words: 634; Charts: 4
I don’t relish the job of constantly pointing out the risks to the equity markets but since few on Wall Street seem willing (or able) to do this, I’m “making the call” for a market correction, as enough variables have aligned to indicate a high likelihood of stocks heading downwards from here. Words: 1203; Charts: 6
The stock markets make no sense. They have literally lost touch with reality. Divergences between fundamentals, confidence and the valuation of markets are large [and, as such,] cannot last for long….The only question is how…and how quickly….this correction occurs. Words: 261
You need to stay in markets despite an impending economic collapse. [Really?! Yes, really.] Normally such an expectation would be addressed by getting out of the way of the oncoming disaster and taking ones chips off the table [but,] in this situation, there is no place to hide. Low-risk assets, like bonds and near-cash, produce little to no return…and the threat of rising interest rates and inflation make them dangerous. Higher risk assets are unavoidable, given current conditions. [Let me explain further.] Words: 830
Most everything you’ve heard about investing from the mainstream media, your mutual fund advisor and your tax accountant is a lie. You’ve been told…that the entire point of portfolio diversification is to mitigate downside risk yet when the market experiences the inevitable decline, every sector pushes significantly lower – and your “diversified” portfolio suffers as a result, [right? Well, there IS a better way.] Hear me out. Words: 895
Key stock indices are becoming significantly overpriced. The value of the U.S. stock market stands at about 133% of GDP. The average for the past 60 years has been around 82%. By this measure, the U.S. stock market is overvalued by more than 50%! Words: 398
Investors are more bullish now than at any time since 2002 but the current rally has not been fueled by improved prospects of actual growth and wealth creation. Instead, it’s mostly due to:
- investors desperate for income denied them elsewhere by central bank policies;
- printed stimulus cash seeking a home and
- sheer technical momentum
but nowhere do they seem to be considering market risk – the risk that your investment will lose value because it gets dragged down in a falling market. Words: 615
What you are about to read below is startling. •Every time that the market has fallen in recent years, insiders have been able to get out ahead of time… •[What] is so alarming [this time round is] that corporate insiders are selling nine times as many shares as they are buying right now. •In addition, some extraordinarily large bets have just been made that will only pay off if the financial markets in the U.S. crash by the end of April. •So what does all of this mean? [Could it be that they] have insider knowledge that a market crash is coming? Evaluate the evidence below and decide for yourself. Words: 570
At some point we are going to see another wave of panic hit the financial markets like we saw back in 2008. The false stock market bubble will burst, major banks will fail and the financial system will implode. It could unfold something like this: Words: 660
New year festivities have continued on the stock market even as the Christmas trees have been put away. The “death of the fiscal cliff,” not horrible job numbers and supportive comments from Mario Draghi on the other side of the pond have led to bold and bullish behaviors over the last three weeks. While no one can predict the exact peak, here are five reasons you’re better off on the sidelines than in the market.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has developed a chart showing the past two cycles in the S&P 500 highlighting peak and trough valuations. At face value it is very alarming as it suggests a potential decline of somewhere in the vicinity of 60% over the next year or two and concurs with previous innovative trend analyses included in this article. Charts: 4
Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, [my analyses indicate that] the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 33% to 51%, depending on which of 4 indicators I used. This is an increase over the previous month’s 31% to 48% range. [Let me explain the details.] Words: 475
Goldman Sachs reports their Global Economic Indicators (GLI) show the world has re-entered a contraction and…is predicting a market crash worse than that of the early 90′s recession and one slightly less than the sell-off at the turn of the millennium. [Below are graphs to support their contentions.] Words: 250
Mark Spitznagel…warned the other day that the S&P 500 could lose 40% of its value in the next couple of years. So what black swan event could cause the S&P 500 to drop down to 760? [Let’s take a closer look.] Words: 856