An analysis of surprising similarities between the 5 major spikes in the price of gold since 2001 suggests that if those similarities were applied to the 5th price spike (August, 2011) going forward that it would not be unreasonable to expect a spike to $2,600 in June or July of this year and another spike – to somewhere between $4,700 and $5,050 – in January or February of 2015 .
The following analysis is from the Approximity Gold Team (gold.approximity.com) as posted* on SilverBearCafe.com under the title The Roadmap To $4,866 Gold Within 2 Years.
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Edited excerpts from the analysis are as follows:
…[Since] gold started its rise more than a decade ago [March 2001]…there have been five prominent price spikes, as follows:
May of 2001 with $288.35,
February of 2003 with $385.00,
May of 2006 with $725.75,
March of 2008 with $1,023.50,
September of 2011 with $1,896.50
Expressed differently, the spikes seem to come in pairs, as follows:
the rise within the pairs (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) was 34% and 41%, respectively;
the rise from one pair to the next (2 to 3 and 4 to 5), if we assume that the most recent fifth spike belongs to a pair as well, was 89% and 85%.
If we take the middle of those two respective moves [i.e. 37.5% and 87%], and also extrapolate the times between them [21-22 months] into the future, we could try and guess what a sixth and a seventh price spike could look like (see also chart below).
Our guess would be:
June of 2013 at $2,603.37 (spike 6) and
January of 2015 at $4,865.73 (spike 7).
[As such, we] won’t be surprised if gold goes up $1,000 in the next few months.
[Were we to apply the minimum-maximum % spreads for the next 2 spikes and the monthly time frame spans we could see gold going to somewhere between:
$2,541 and $2,674 by June/July 2013 (spike 6) and
$4,701 and $5,o54 by January/February 2015 (spike 7)]
The chart below shows one of the potentially most important cycles in macroeconomics. It plots the Blue Chips of the U.S. industry (the Dow Jones Industrial Average) priced in ounces of gold. The chart shows that when one real asset (industry) is priced in another real asset (gold), one does not get ever increasing prices, but instead major price CYCLES.
The chart implies that the amplitude of these DJIA:Gold cycles (possibly due to the increasing degree of leverage in the system) has…[continually expanded ever] since December 23, 1913, when the Federal Reserve Act established the second U.S. central bank, the “Federal Reserve” as we know it today. [Accordingly,] a target for the DJIA:Gold ratio below 1:1 seems possible.
Editor’s Note:The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
Analyst after analyst (in excess of 170 at last count) has been forecasting what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 43 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 400
The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies [and that] gold is just creating the conditions – a T-1 pattern – necessary for its next leg up to what I expect to be…around $3200 sometime in late 2014 or early 2015. [Let me explain.] Words: 560; Charts: 3
Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated in the Pareto Principle where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time. That being the case it would appear that gold and silver could conceivably top out around $9,000 per troy ounce and $250/ozt respectively .This is not a prediction of future prices of gold and silver; it is an indication of what could happen in a speculative bubble environment based on the history of previous bubbles. Words: 1280; Charts: 1
Seeing the S&P 500 outperform gold and seeing gold stocks get decimated…has been enough to create suicidal sentiment…in the precious metals (PM) sector…but, as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market…[are expressed,] the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower. The bigger picture hasn’t changed and isn’t going to for some time [so] keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don’t let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what STILL promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 and might even go below 1 this cycle. [Let me explain.] Words: 873
I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. Once $1800 is taken out on the upside the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. [Below is my analysis and some charts on the situation.] Words: 434; Charts: 2
The fact that nobody really knows with absolute certainty where gold will really go from today onward makes people try to make their own guesses about what can happen with the yellow metal. One of the methods to do that is to look back into past situations and try to estimate if what is happening now is somehow similar to those past events. The situation in the gold market today is different than the one in 1980 in a few important areas. Even if past patterns don’t give you any certainty, though, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty. Let us analyze that in more detail. Words: 1260; Charts: 2
The timing of this article may seem incongruous given the current weak performance of gold and gold stocks but that was the identical situation in each of the past manias – both the metal and the equities didn’t excel until the frenzy kicked in. The following documentation (exact returns from specific companies during this era are identified) is actually a fresh reminder of why we think you should hold on to your positions – or start accumulating them, if you haven’t already. (Words: 1987; Tables: 7)
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The closing of the gold window back in August 1971 has led governments worldwide to create endless amounts of worthless paper money and the resulting credit bubble has created a world debt exposure of over US$ 1 quadrillion (including derivatives). It has also created perceived wealth for big parts of the world’s population – a wealth which is only backed by promises to pay and by grossly inflated assets. Few people realise that this wealth is totally illusory and will implode considerably faster than the time it took to create it. [Let me explain.] Words: 890
My Fractal Gold chart work is a direct comparison of Gold, today, to the late 70’s Gold Parabola. Thus, “timing” is taken directly from the late 70’s cycle, with price targets created from a combination of the late 70’s Gold price and different technical analysis techniques. We developed a price target back in 2006/ 2007 for Gold to reach the $10,000 to $12,000 range during this Gold Bull and we still stand by that forecast. Let me explain where we are at this point in time.
This is not a typical bull market. Gold is not rising in value, but instead, currencies are losing purchasing power against gold and, therefore, gold can rise as high as currencies can fall. Since currencies are falling because of increasing debt, gold can rise as high as government debt can grow. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if its correlation with the price of gold remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce. However, if history is any example, it’s a safe bet that government expenditure estimates will be greatly exceeded, and [this] rising debt will cause the price of gold to rise to $10,000…over the next five years. (Let me explain further.] Words: 1767
The correlation between the gold price from 1968 until 1979 and from early 2000 until today is an amazing 89.65%! More specifically, the correlation from 1975 until April 1979 and from January 2008 until today is an astonishing 97.83% suggesting that gold will reach an ultimate top of $5,000 per troy ounce before the bubble bursts. Words: 330
It is my contention that the price of gold rallies whenever the U.S. dollar’s real short-term interest rate is below 2%, falls whenever the real short rate is above 2%, and holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%. Furthermore, for every one percentage point real rates differ from 2%, gold moves by eight times that amount per year. So if the real rates are at 1%, gold will move up at an 8% annualized rate. If real rates are at 0%, then gold will move up at a 16% rate (that’s been about the story for the past decade). Conversely, if the real rate jumps to 3%, then gold will drop at an 8% rate. [Let me explain.] Words: 982
I believe that the price of gold will… reach… $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 [per troy] ounce…during the course of this long-lasting bull market, a bull market that still has years of life left to it…[although] prices will remain extremely volatile – with big swings both up and down along a rising trend…The future price of gold is a function of past and prospective world economic, demographic, and political developments [and in this article] I review some of these developments and trends – so that you can come to your own “golden” conclusions. Words: 3800