Friday , 18 August 2017


Where are We Now in the Bull Market in Gold – and How Many Years/Months are Left?

Gold is in a bull market and, [believe it or not,] so are the gold stocks despite their struggle as a group to outperform gold… but [neither] is anywhere close to a bubble, nor the speculative zeal we saw in 2006-2007. Thus, it begs the question” “What lies ahead and when can we expect the initial stages of a bubble?” To figure this out we first need to get an idea of how long the bull market will last and then where we are now based on various indice analyses. [Below I do just that.] Words: 785

So says Jordan Roy-Byrne (www.thedailygold.com) in edited excerpts from his original article*.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

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Roy-Byrne goes on to say, in part:

Where We  Are Now in the Bull Market in Gold

Below is a great chart from Cycle Pro Outlook. It uses John Williams’ CPI, which is consistent over time. Interestingly, Steven Williams of Cycle Pro has found a 17.6-year cycle between equity bull and bear markets. It fits fairly well with the alternation between equity and commodity bull markets.

 


In nominal terms the last two commodity bull markets lasted about 15 years and 18 years [each]…from 1960 to 1980 [and]…from 1923 to 1937 [when using] Homestake Mining [as] a proxy for the ancient past. [As such,] are we looking at something closer to 15 or 20 years? The following chart should answer that.

Why spend time surfing the internet looking for informative and well-written articles on the health of the economies of the U.S., Canada and Europe; the development and implications of the world’s financial crisis and the various investment opportunities that present themselves related to commodities (gold and silver in particular) and the stock market when we do it for you. We assess hundreds of articles every day, identify the best and then post edited excerpts of them to provide you with a fast and easy read.

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[The chart below] is the Barrons Gold Mining Index, courtesy of sharelynx.com…[which] shows that the 1980 high is roughly equivalent to the 2008 high. The gold stocks broke to a new all-time high [earlier in the year] but it won’t be confirmed until they sustain the breakout and make new highs [and that has not happened as yet although] eventually the breakout will be confirmed with the next leg higher. The point here is that it is too soon to expect this secular bull market to end four or five years after a major multi-decade breakout…- far too soon.

A  look at the Nasdaq [chart below shows] some similarities. The Nasdaq had its initial rise from 1982 to 1987. Following 1987, it would be four years until the market was able to breakout to sustained new highs. That was nine years into the bull market. The bubble began just before the 13th year of the bull market, in 1995. The circle shows where I think we are now based on various indices, which includes my proprietary gold and silver indices.

 

Bull Market in Gold Will Reach Bubble Proportions No Sooner Than 2014 and Burst No Later Than 2018

The early conclusion is that the start of the bubble is at least a few years away. Based on the price action we are likely to have a major breakout and a few years of strength which will set the stage for the start of a bubble perhaps in 2014. As you can see in the chart below the gold stocks…have not sustained a new all-time high for quite a while [and, as such,]…are ripe for a breakout and a powerful move higher.

 

[As mentioned previously] most bull markets last 15 to 20 years and they end in an accelerated fashion [and the current bull market run is only in its 12th year]. Based on our research, [therefore,] we believe this bull market will end close to 2020 (say 2018)…

*http://thedailygold.com/featured/when-will-gold-stocks-reach-the-bubble-phase/?p=11925/
 

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