The price action in gold and gold miners over the past six months has many investors turning their back on the precious metal. Gold fell below $1,600 last week to reach a six month low, prompting many to step back and wonder aloud if the precious metal’s decade long bull market has officially come to an end. With the price of gold now back to where it was in July of 2011, it’s time to decipher whether this is a buying opportunity, or time to head for the exits.
So writes Tyler Laundon (www.wyattresearch.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled 3 Reasons For and Against a Gold Rally.
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Laundon goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
Three Reasons to sell (or stay away):
1. …SEC filings show that some hedge fund managers (including George Soros who sold half of his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) liquidated gold holdings in late 2012, and sales like these “bolster speculation that gold’s 12-year bull-run is coming to the end”, according to Bloomberg. It may be right.
2. Speculation is rising that the Fed will end asset purchases, which currently stand at $85 billion a month, in mid-to-late 2013. Removing some of this “excess liquidity” would likely reduce the fear trade that has pushed investors toward gold.
3. The evidence speaks for itself – gold and gold mining stocks keep going down and are breaking through technical support. Physical gold’s price fell to a 6-month low last week, and gold mining stocks are falling even faster, breaking to a 9-month low last week. There is no reason to catch a falling knife, as they say.
Three Reasons to buy (or hold):
1. Soros may have sold his gold holdings because he saw a better use of the capital, specifically in the Japanese yen. In late 2012, Japan’s new leader, Prime Minister Shinzō Abe stated his goal to drive down the yen. Spurred by Japan’s policies, the yen fell, driving up the price of gold as denominated in yen by nearly 20% over six months. Over the same period gold denominated in U.S. dollars was flat. The Wall Street Journal reported that Soros was on the right side of this trade, gaining “almost $1 billion on the trade since November (2012).”
2. According to the U.S. Global Investors “oscillator model” gold has corrected far enough and has entered a potentially profitable buy zone. The model indicates that gold has dropped 2 standard deviations on a year-over-year basis. “An event like this has happened only about 2 percent of the time over the last 10 years … following these extreme lows, gold has historically increased as much as 15 percent over the next year“, according to the mutual fund group.
3. Central banks around the world are still buying gold. The WGC reports that in 2012, central bank demand was 534 tons, the highest recorded since 1964. Demand was high in emerging markets including Brazil, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, the Philippines and Russia, which now has the 8th largest gold reserve in the world. Central bank buying is a good showing of confidence in gold.
The technical evidence suggests that the price of gold may soon move to the upside. I wouldn’t bet against a rise in gold’s price, regardless of what hedge fund filings show. Nothing happens in a vacuum. That said, a reversal isn’t guaranteed. For these reasons I’m neutral on gold right now.
The performance of gold miners is troubling. Bullish indicators, such as takeover bids and dirt cheap valuations still haven’t led to stabilization in the sector. When a turnaround comes, there will likely be plenty of time for investors to get into these stocks, so I see little reason to load up on gold miners now.
I have advised subscribers to Pay Dirt not to stray from gold unless they need to rebalance their portfolios but I’ve advised them to steer clear from the miners for now.
Editor’s Note:The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.
People who are saying there is no reason to buy gold now, never understood the reason people were buying it in the first place. People weren’t buying gold because they were worried about a crisis in the Eurozone or weak US stocks. People were buying gold because central banks were printing too much money. It’s inflation that drives the gold train, not political uncertainty.
I view the current market weakness in gold, coupled with the pullback in trader positions, as a shorting opportunity which is strong in terms of reward vs. risk. I have come to that conclusion by questioning the assumptions that many make about it, isolating its fundamental drivers and providing a trading recommendation as to where I believe the price is headed in the future. Let me share my analyses with you. (Words: 1440; Charts: 4; Tables: 1)
I recently explained my thesis for why gold’s 12-year winning streak will come to an end in 2013…[and] nearly a month into 2013, the case for selling gold is gaining strength. [This article puts forth 5 compelling reasons why it is now time to sell gold.] Words: 690 ; Charts: 2
The arguments for gold to rise dramatically are well known and highly publicized. The arguments for gold to remain flat or to decline are minimally discussed and generally attacked vigorously when raised. [I do just that in this article and the conclusions will not be liked by the goldbugs.] Words: 285
All thing considered, it seems clear that the long-term real returns of gold have been poor (compared to stocks and bonds), and I see no reason to expect long-term price appreciation for gold to be above inflation. In fact, as with any non-income producing asset, it would be unreasonable to expect gold to provide significant positive real returns over an indefinite period of time…I would argue that buying gold is a short-term gamble that is completely dependent on the unpredictable vagaries of perception, market psychology and the “greater fool” theory…While it is true that gold can be a good short-term trade and offer superior returns over shorter periods (as has been the case in recent years) I believe that stocks will continue to substantially outperform gold over time. [Let me explain these less than popular conclusions further.] Words: 1258
The paper gold market is being used to shake the bullish tree harder this time than any time before because of what is to come. Fear is the most powerful emotion in markets and it is being used perfectly to enrich the grand names of finance at your expense. We are right in front of that time when the market performs a classic bottom both in shares and physical. From this point gold is going to and through $3500 [so] if you are unable to buy at this time there is one thing you can do – to get into the fight and out of the stands. That act is do nothing, and do not capitulate. Let them play the price game, but give them nothing whatsoever of yours. Words: 758
There is a nasty game taking place which relies entirely on scaring you out of your wits. Yes, out of your mind, so you sell something of great value for peanuts to the exact party playing with your head via price. When you must look at the action, remember there is a buyer for every seller. That buyer is not scared out of his/her wits if you sell to stop the pain you are in. This period is, in my opinion, the last and largest attack you will see perpetrated on us before gold closes over $3500. This period of pain will not be measured in months, but counted in history as days. Stand firm and stay the course! Words: 787
There is a substantial debate about what asset, if any, gold price relates to or responds to….We think the most logical factor in its price as a form of money would be the ratio of the currency in circulation versus the amount of gold that could be associated with that currency…We have heard some strong opinions to the contrary…that perhaps some other assets other than currency in circulation could be used to explain gold price behavior, and therefore provide some gauge of over and under valuation in the market price. [We look at 14 different assets below.] Words: 586
There are significant challenges to gold prices increasing in 2013. In fact, I believe that gold prices should move down in 2013 because of five strong headwinds, elaborated in this article. Words: 464
The threats of global recession, insurmountable debt, terrible government policy, central bank support, and many other very persuasive arguments present gold as a very appealing investment or safe haven but all of this is an illusion. Gold was a sensible investment in the early part of the bull market (1999-07), but has now become a false sense of security for many investors who will soon learn the hard way. Not only are the fundamentals already priced in, the technicals severely weakened, and the extremes in gold optimism easily apparent, but the bad news for gold could soon get much worse. The next weeks or few months will hopefully give us a lot more clarity. Words: 1170
[While] the price of gold has gone up for 12 straight years, and is on pace to make it 13 when this year comes to a close, it seems that despite all of the gold bugs calling for the metal to surge to unbelievable highs, major financial institutions are calling for the gold bubble to finally burst in the coming months. [Let’s examine what they and others have to say.] Words: 450
The U.S. Dollar is being very aggressively devalued in a parabolic…[manner] as we enter the final stage in the paper currency cycle. The government needs Gold to go vastly higher so the budget can be balanced after all of the paper promise debts are added to the balance sheet. Interestingly, Michael Belkin, arguably one of the best analysts in the world, expects earnings for companies to plunge this year causing the DJIA to crater about 30%. This fits with the kind of correction in the now high flying DJIA that we have discussed per the late 70’s charts where Gold and the Dow would meet between 10,000 and 12.000. Words: 1022
There is an increasingly disorderly currency war going on out there, and the advantage of gold is clear– they can’t print it, they can’t default on it, and there will always be demand for it. Simply put, in the global currency wars, owning gold is like abandoning the battlefield altogether. Words: 270; Charts: 2
When are Gold and Silver going to start a huge parabolic move up? I, personally, think that we are sitting at the cusp [of such happening] as we speak on an intermediate-term basis….Below are… the fundamentals and technical set-up [to that end].
Gold investors often fail to watch the Federal Reserve with enough attention to detail and can miss buying opportunities like the present one, as a result. The case for gold is as strong as ever and I outline in this article why with details you’re unlikely to see anywhere else. Words: 775; Charts: 6
Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated in the Pareto Principle where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time. That being the case it would appear that gold and silver could conceivably top out around $9,000 per troy ounce and $250/ozt respectively .This is not a prediction of future prices of gold and silver; it is an indication of what could happen in a speculative bubble environment based on the history of previous bubbles. Words: 1280; Charts: 1
One never knows exactly where Precious Metals are going so I always try to keep in mind a list of items that are probable based on the facts that are evident. I call this “what we know” and “what we don’t know” so let’s take a look what we “know” and “don’t know” at this point in time. Words: 872
There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. Once $1800 is taken out on the upside the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. [Below is my analysis and some charts on the situation.] Words: 434; Charts: 2
The fact that nobody really knows with absolute certainty where gold will really go from today onward makes people try to make their own guesses about what can happen with the yellow metal. One of the methods to do that is to look back into past situations and try to estimate if what is happening now is somehow similar to those past events. The situation in the gold market today is different than the one in 1980 in a few important areas. Even if past patterns don’t give you any certainty, though, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty. Let us analyze that in more detail. Words: 1260; Charts: 2
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
While the debate rages on about whether or not gold/silver are in some kind of investment bubble, the facts completely obliterate any possible argument supporting the “bubble” thesis. [Here they are.] Words: 585
I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
Lately analyst after analyst (161 at last count) has been climbing on board the golden wagon with prognostications as to what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 51 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 644
Since the Financial Crisis erupted in 2007, the US Federal Reserve has engaged in dozens of interventions/ bailouts to try and prop up the financial system…and the amount of money printed is absolutely staggering. As a result of this, inflation hedges, particularly Gold, have been soaring…[but] for gold, for example, to hit a new all time high adjusted for inflation, it would have to clear at least $2,193 per ounce. If you go by 1970 dollars (when gold started its last bull market) it would have to hit $4,666 per ounce. Words: 581
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The closing of the gold window back in August 1971 has led governments worldwide to create endless amounts of worthless paper money and the resulting credit bubble has created a world debt exposure of over US$ 1 quadrillion (including derivatives). It has also created perceived wealth for big parts of the world’s population – a wealth which is only backed by promises to pay and by grossly inflated assets. Few people realise that this wealth is totally illusory and will implode considerably faster than the time it took to create it. [Let me explain.] Words: 890
My Fractal Gold chart work is a direct comparison of Gold, today, to the late 70’s Gold Parabola. Thus, “timing” is taken directly from the late 70’s cycle, with price targets created from a combination of the late 70’s Gold price and different technical analysis techniques. We developed a price target back in 2006/ 2007 for Gold to reach the $10,000 to $12,000 range during this Gold Bull and we still stand by that forecast. Let me explain where we are at this point in time.
This is not a typical bull market. Gold is not rising in value, but instead, currencies are losing purchasing power against gold and, therefore, gold can rise as high as currencies can fall. Since currencies are falling because of increasing debt, gold can rise as high as government debt can grow. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if its correlation with the price of gold remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce. However, if history is any example, it’s a safe bet that government expenditure estimates will be greatly exceeded, and [this] rising debt will cause the price of gold to rise to $10,000…over the next five years. (Let me explain further.] Words: 1767
The correlation between the gold price from 1968 until 1979 and from early 2000 until today is an amazing 89.65%! More specifically, the correlation from 1975 until April 1979 and from January 2008 until today is an astonishing 97.83% suggesting that gold will reach an ultimate top of $5,000 per troy ounce before the bubble bursts. Words: 330
It is my contention that the price of gold rallies whenever the U.S. dollar’s real short-term interest rate is below 2%, falls whenever the real short rate is above 2%, and holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%. Furthermore, for every one percentage point real rates differ from 2%, gold moves by eight times that amount per year. So if the real rates are at 1%, gold will move up at an 8% annualized rate. If real rates are at 0%, then gold will move up at a 16% rate (that’s been about the story for the past decade). Conversely, if the real rate jumps to 3%, then gold will drop at an 8% rate. [Let me explain.] Words: 982
I believe that the price of gold will… reach… $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 [per troy] ounce…during the course of this long-lasting bull market, a bull market that still has years of life left to it…[although] prices will remain extremely volatile – with big swings both up and down along a rising trend…The future price of gold is a function of past and prospective world economic, demographic, and political developments [and in this article] I review some of these developments and trends – so that you can come to your own “golden” conclusions. Words: 3800
[Here is a summary of my]…thoughts on the 2011 gold price peak relative to the last time a long term bull market ended (back in 1980): Long-term bull markets almost always end with a bang, not a whimper, and last year’s price peak was clearly the latter. A 25% rise over a period of about two months last year [does not an] end-of-cycle, blow-off top [make]. No, I think there’s still some room to run for gold if for no other reason than that we haven’t even come close to the “mania” stage that characterizes the end of long-term market moves…[Let me explain further.] Words: 359; Charts: 1