[Here is a summary of my]…thoughts on the 2011 gold price peak relative to the last time a long term bull market ended (back in 1980): Long-term bull markets almost always end with a bang, not a whimper, and last year’s price peak was clearly the latter. A 25% rise over a period of about two months last year [does not an] end-of-cycle, blow-off top [make]. No, I think there’s still some room to run for gold if for no other reason than that we haven’t even come close to the “mania” stage that characterizes the end of long-term market moves…[Let me explain further.] Words: 359; Charts: 1
So writes Tim Iacono (http://iaconoresearch.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled That’s Not What The End Of The Gold Bull Market Would Look Like. (Original post)
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Iacono goes on to say, in part:
If the late-2011 peak of just over $1,920 a [troy] ounce [for gold] proves to… [have been] the highest the price of [that] the yellow metal will go for another 30 years or so, it certainly looks nothing like the prior secular peak. Long-term bull markets almost always end with a bang, not a whimper, and last year’s price peak was clearly the latter as shown below.
A 25% rise over a period of about two months last year [does not an] end-of-cycle, blow-off top [make]. No, I think there’s still some room to run for gold if for no other reason than that we haven’t even come close to the “mania” stage that characterizes the end of long-term market moves…
Holders of [gold, gold ETFs and gold stocks] should probably hang…[in there as]:
Real interest rates remain in negative territory,
Central banks continue to buy the metal in large quantities, and
Investors around the world continue to lose confidence in both paper money and the policymakers that control it.
There [may well] have…been 12- or 13-year bull markets before that have ended like the blue curve in the graphic above, but I don’t know of any. That’s all the more reason to think that gold is still just getting warmed up for its main performance to come sometime in the next few years.
While I know many of you are concerned about the recent sell offs in gold and silver – especially gold and silver stocks – I must strongly caution you not to join in the crowd of sellers. Instead, if you’ve been waiting for a time to add to, or to initiate, a precious metals position, this is exactly what you’ve been waiting for. [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 311; Charts: 1
At the end of the day the gold price is not a mystery – it’s a proxy for dollar weakness. After spending the previous fall and winter testing new nominal highs above $1,800, future investors may come to view…2012 as the opportunity of the decade. Gold has shown its strength and retreated. While most investors will take that as a signal that the market has topped, some will take advantage of the general trepidation to add to their positions at hundreds of dollars off the highs. Words: 700
I believe it is important to mitigate the risk of loss with your physical bullion by diversifying the locations where you hold it. To this end, I think it is wise to have some bullion on your property, some in secure storage off site, a portion stored with an ETF like CEF and ideally at some stored at a location overseas. In order to obtain the overseas diversification, I [recommend BullionVault because, while their 43,000 customers have already done business with them at some of the lowest costs available, they have just reduced their initial commission fee by 37.5% – from 0.8% to just 0.5%! Let me explain further some of the advantages of doing business with Bullionvault.] Words: 796
Savers will not stand idly by and watch their savings get wiped out by taxes and inflation….[which] is good news for investors who buy and hold commodity assets today – and it’s also a stark reminder to not be fooled by the short-term head fakes that might make it look like the commodity bull is over. Stay the course – the biggest profits are yet to come. [Here’s why.] Words: 405
What is developing in the markets is not the beginning of another leg down in gold, but a second chance to get positioned for what should be a very profitable intermediate degree rally over the next 2-3 months. [Let me explain further with a number of charts to support my position.] Words: 460
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
We’ve been surprised at the recent action in the precious metals complex. During the recent correction the shares were showing quite a bit more strength than the metals. Then the shares took a dive below support yet the metals maintained their recent lows! How do we interpret this wild volatility in the relationship between the shares and the metals? Quite often we look at daily and weekly charts. Now is the time to take a look at the monthly charts which can help us get a better read on the larger trends at hand. Words: 636
With President Obama being re-elected we can expect four more years of a Washington-centric controlled economy with a rolling program of borrow, print, spend and pretend; similar to the last four years….[What affect will such fiscal irresponsibility have on the U.S. dollar, gold and silver? Read on!] Words: 717
My previous article on gold & silver went viral with almost 30,000 reads on munKNEE.com alone and continues to be read by hundreds of goldbugs daily. Below is an updated chart and analysis suggesting that gold & silver have further to drop before they go parabolic. Take a look and share it with friends.
Gold & silver have pulled back over the past two weeks after both faced strong resistance from the upper horizontal line of their respective trading ranges [and continue to flucuate within their] 12-month Trading Ranges of $1,540 – $1,800 and $26.50 – $36 respectively. HUI and XAU levels have pulled back and are testing the lower boundary of their rising wedges [but look likely to move upwards within their respective wedges (530 – 570 for the HUI and 200 – 215 for the XAU) before moving higher]. Check out my technical analysis below for details.