Economic Overviews

Tens of millions of American families are about to go through economic hell and most of them don't even realize it...Most Americans realize that things seem "harder" these days, but most of them also have faith that things will eventually get better. Unfortunately, things aren't going to get any better. The number of good jobs continues to decline, the number of Americans losing their homes continues to go up, people are having a much more difficult time paying their bills and our federal government is drowning in debt. Sadly, this is only just the beginning. [Let me explain.] Words: 1256

The economic news is not very encouraging these days. Everywhere I've looked, and I've looked at 10 different indicators (surveys, polls and indexes), things appear to be either down or stagnant. Let me be more explicit. Words: 1058

This summer will confirm that the US Federal Reserve has lost its bet: the U.S. economy has, in fact, never left the "Very Great Depression" which it entered in 2008 despite the trillions of dollars injected... Unable to launch a QE3, the Fed will helplessly watch interest rates rise, US government deficit costs explode, the world dive into an intensified economic recession, stock exchanges collapse and the U.S. dollar show erratic behavior before suddenly losing 30% of its value. Words: 1157

Knowing where we are within the business cycle can help investors better position themselves for superior returns [because, as we all know,] during economic expansions equities typically outperform fixed income investments while the converse is typically the case during economic downturns. Current analysis of the business cycle suggests a period of slower growth ahead, not just in the U.S., but also globally, [but no signs of an impending recession. Let me explain.] Words: 834

Most economists see the latest Q1 GDP stumble as a blip, something we shouldn't worry about because the economy is still on track for recovery...[but] another way to look at it is that the economy is being harmed by monetary inflation and we are seeing massive distortions in the economy as a result of this intentional Fed policy - economic growth is stalling and industrial production, manufacturing, non-manufacturing, durable goods production, retail sales and employment is flattening-to-declining... I think this is the correct way of looking at things and, [as such,] Q1 is not a temporary blip on the road to recovery... [but another mile down the road to economic stagflation, price inflation, lower real estate prices, continuing high unemployment, a weaker dollar, higher taxes and more - much more! Let me explain.] Words: 2997

[A look below at the trend in the U.S.'s share] of world GDP (data here) from 1969 to 2010... [shows an] amazingly stable share of world output which has remained [constant at 26.3%] for more than forty years...[and] is a testament to how America's dynamism, resiliency, and culture of innovation and entrepreneurship have enabled us to be productive in a tough world. [Let me expand on this further.] Words: 730

[As a reult of] slowing economic growth around the world, stock markets are at the “tipping point” of a correction. Here are 15 global signs that supports that thesis. Words: 678

Until people understand the reality of this supposed financial recovery and realize that unless major changes are made the deck chairs on the Titanic will just keep being rearranged resulting in the wealthy being even wealthier by 2020 and the middle class being a shell of what it once was in the United States. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 1260

The credit risk of the 30 large global financial entities representing the most systemically worrisome firms in the world just broke an important channel. It is now at its highest level in over four months having increased 14% in just the last three weeks which is extremely fast. At current levels we are now almost twice as risky as we were prior to the financial crisis and there is increasing concern that there might be another round of insolvencies or collapse of the financial industry. [Let's take a closer look.] Words: 630

Economy watchers looking for a spark of life in the exhausted, debt-ridden American consumer are quick to latch on to any signs of a pulse and the latest came in the form of higher personal borrowing in March. The $6.02-billion (U.S.) increase marked the sixth consecutive monthly advance and was nearly three times higher than the most bearish forecasts. The best news of all, however, is that credit-card debt climbed, marking only the second such rise since the housing and credit market collapse. [Unfortunately, however,] “We’re only 20 per cent of the way there" says Stephen Roach. "The American consumer is toast - stuck with a legacy of excessive debt, inadequate saving, and facing high unemployment, higher under-employment, weak incomes and holding on to assets that are under water... [As such,] you can not rule out the chances of the world sliding back into recession.” Words: 1004