Economic Overviews

We have had massive monetary creation for decades now which we have finally come to the day of reckoning. We do not know if the top will be next month, next year or even later but we certainly are getting to the top where we cannot buy our way out of the problem through a new stimulus injection... The truth is that a terrible, deflationary depression is probably starting in the coming months. Words: 1581

What happens when the stimulus is over and the Fed begins to tighten again? Where will demand come from to get Main Street back, create jobs, raise middle class wages? Not from big businesses. Certainly not from Wall Street. Not from exports. Not from government. So, where? That question is the big unknown hanging over the U.S. economy. Until there’s an answer, an economic “recovery” for anyone other than big corporations, Wall Street, and the wealthy is a mirage. Words: 1279

In his April 2010 issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist Prechter predicted that these same eight indicators would switch from bullish to bearish by May 7th. Considering the events on May 6th and 7th he is once again sounding prophetic. This is extremely important as the media would have you believe that the events of May 6th were the result of a "fat finger". Words: 1154

If the market is topping, it’s doing so in the face of rosy news in every area except for employment and there is nothing more ominous than a stock market turning down in the face of a “bright” economy. At such times, nobody is ready or positioned for a sudden reversal. [Are you?] Words: 637

The final phase will be a time of higher savings and flight back to the U.S. dollar, i.e. more aversion to risk. It's also a period that begins the healing of economies and it's driven by austerity. This means higher taxes, higher savings, a stronger dollar and a lower standard of living. In short, it's a period of rebalancing and rebuilding. Words: 555

Officially, the crisis is over. Everyone says so. Central bankers and Treasury officials have been congratulating themselves. It’s been a year now since the end of the world didn’t happen. These fellows take credit for it. Claptrap! Balderdash! Flimflam! Words: 669

This is NOT a business cycle: this is a one-time reversal of twenty years of inflation of the household balance sheet. An aging population needs a 10% savings rate (at least) to meet minimum funding requirements for the biggest retirement wave in US history but, instead, with 17% effective unemployment, many Americans are dis-saving. Words: 332

Of the $200+ trillion in derivatives on US banks’ balance sheets, 85% are based on interest rates and for that reason I cannot take any of the Fed’s mumblings about raising interest rates seriously at all. Remember, most if not all, of the bailout money has gone to US banks in order to help them raise capital. So why would the Fed make a move that could potentially destroy these firms’ equity and essentially undoing all of its previous efforts? That being said I still see derivatives as a trillion dollar ticking time bomb with a short fuse. Words: 506