Friday , 10 July 2020


Economy

What Decline? U.S Economy Holding Up Exceptionally Well!

[A look below at the trend in the U.S.'s share] of world GDP (data here) from 1969 to 2010... [shows an] amazingly stable share of world output which has remained [constant at 26.3%] for more than forty years...[and] is a testament to how America's dynamism, resiliency, and culture of innovation and entrepreneurship have enabled us to be productive in a tough world. [Let me expand on this further.] Words: 730

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These Indicators Say Inflation to Go to 4% Soon – and 6% by 2014

In response to the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed injected unprecedented levels of liquidity into the banking system. While inflation has been modest to date, an analysis of similar periods in history shows that it typically takes more than two years for the impact on consumer prices to be seen. Consequently, we are now at a pivotal point in the current cycle as Fed stimulus began more than two years ago. [Let me explain further.] Words: 2755

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Current Economic Recovery is a Sham! Here's Why

Until people understand the reality of this supposed financial recovery and realize that unless major changes are made the deck chairs on the Titanic will just keep being rearranged resulting in the wealthy being even wealthier by 2020 and the middle class being a shell of what it once was in the United States. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 1260

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U.S. Debt Default Risk is Up Dramatically YTD

[While] the average country has seen its default risk decline by about 5% this year [25 countries' CDS prices went up; 32 countries saw their CDS prices go down]... the US has seen its default risk rise the 8th most (i.e. 19.28%) out of the 57 countries listed.

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What Inflation? Take a Look At All the Deflation Around You!

There is a tremendous fixation on the inflationary components of CPI of which the most obvious driver is gasoline without which even the rate of headline inflation would be dropping, and the largest risk would be falling inflation. [Deflation? Yes, that is the case when you look at] what consumer prices have declined over the past few years. Words: 460

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Be Forewarned: Worldwide Systemic Financial Risk is Rising Rapidly – Again

The credit risk of the 30 large global financial entities representing the most systemically worrisome firms in the world just broke an important channel. It is now at its highest level in over four months having increased 14% in just the last three weeks which is extremely fast. At current levels we are now almost twice as risky as we were prior to the financial crisis and there is increasing concern that there might be another round of insolvencies or collapse of the financial industry. [Let's take a closer look.] Words: 630

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Inflation Coming? Treasury Market Says Otherwise!

The Federal Reserve’s dual quantitative easing exercises...have been disappointing thus far and, according to what the multi-billion dollar Treasury market is telling us, the numerous forecasts of upcoming inflationary pressures just do NOT exist. [Let me explain.] Words: 571

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U.S. Dollar "Strength" Just a Classic "Dead Cat Bounce": Own Any Gold Stocks Yet?

The U.S. dollar is in a classic dead cat bounce as it appears to fight desperately to avoid dropping below the much watched ‘72′ level. We say fight, but the real situation is not a fight at all; it's a managed decline by the United States to lower the value of its currency and ultimately inflate away the mountain of debt that it realizes is impossible to ever re-pay... [and that will be of major benefit to future gold and silver prices and even more so to the stock of companies that mine the metals. Let me explain.] Words: 1100

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Stephen Roach: Chances of World Sliding Back into Recession a Distinct Possibility

Economy watchers looking for a spark of life in the exhausted, debt-ridden American consumer are quick to latch on to any signs of a pulse and the latest came in the form of higher personal borrowing in March. The $6.02-billion (U.S.) increase marked the sixth consecutive monthly advance and was nearly three times higher than the most bearish forecasts. The best news of all, however, is that credit-card debt climbed, marking only the second such rise since the housing and credit market collapse. [Unfortunately, however,] “We’re only 20 per cent of the way there" says Stephen Roach. "The American consumer is toast - stuck with a legacy of excessive debt, inadequate saving, and facing high unemployment, higher under-employment, weak incomes and holding on to assets that are under water... [As such,] you can not rule out the chances of the world sliding back into recession.” Words: 1004

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