The final phase will be a time of higher savings and flight back to the U.S. dollar, i.e. more aversion to risk. It's also a period that begins the healing of economies and it's driven by austerity. This means higher taxes, higher savings, a stronger dollar and a lower standard of living. In short, it's a period of rebalancing and rebuilding. Words: 555
Read More »Forget the Doom and Gloom! TIPS Yields Say NO Inflation or Stock Market Decline
Real yields on TIPS are very good indicators of the bond market's growth and inflation expectations. Currently they are telling us that the bond market expects sub-par growth and no significant increase in inflation. Words: 401
Read More »Why Fertilizer Stocks Should Double in the Next 12-24 Months
There is probably going to be more speculative money flowing into commodity markets again in 2010 but considering the supply/demand situation, we think soft commodities could easily go up 30%+ in 2010 and still not look overly expensive. Words: 436
Read More »Here's How the Fed Intends to Avoid Major Inflation Down the Road
Ultimately, the Fed’s official inflation containment strategy is to always be able to offer banks a better deal than any private investment alternative. A better deal means the bank taking in more income, which means the banking executives involved get bigger bonuses. The source of funding for this ability to always pay more than the private markets is the ability to directly create a limitless amount of money. At this point it is a very low interest rate, but the rate can go as high as needed, when inflationary pressures build. Words: 2735
Read More »Ever Increasing Foreclosures Mean Low House Prices for Many More Years
Anyone who sees a rising pool of millions of delinquent mortgages as the foundation of a recovery in housing valuations isn't considering the feedback loop which is now firmly in place. The foreclosure pipeline will be full for years to come precluding any "recovery" in housing valuations as supply will swamp demand. Words: 385
Read More »Gold is Saying: "Something Major is Brewing – and it's Not Your Morning Coffee!"
Gold anticipates the not-so-obvious and often completely unforeseen economic developments better than any other investment I know of and these days it is telling us that all is not well with the world and that something major is brewing out there. Words: 918
Read More »The Latest Economic Data is Being Massaged and Sugar-coated
I believe that the worse things get, the better they will sound coming from our nation’s leaders/ pundits. Words: 1132
Read More »Many U. S. Debt Obligations are Unrecognized, Unmeasured, Unmanaged and Unfunded
When people find themselves in a situation where they feel they don't have a decent grip on the risks they face, or where a great deal of critical information is hidden from view, emotions can easily overwhelm rational decision-making. Is it so farfetched to think that a sudden loss of confidence in the United States' ability to manage its finances could evoke similar fears about just how large and widespread the fallout might be? Words: 1026
Read More »Five BIG Reasons Interest Rates MUST Rise
Brace yourself for one of the greatest interest-rate surges in decades — beginning first in the long-term Treasury markets ... later spreading to shorter term Treasuries ... and ultimately enveloping nearly every loan, debt, credit, and money market instrument on the planet. This rise may not begin with great fanfare, nor will it immediately upset the apple cart of the economic recovery, but with the march of time, it WILL gain momentum and reach critical mass. Words: 614
Read More »Soros: New Financial System Needed to Avoid Another Crisis
The crucial factor in the crash of 2008 is that it was not due to some exogenous event or extraneous shock but by the system itself. That means that the prevailing paradigm, the efficient market hypothesis basically has been proven wrong. As such, the task ahead is not to restart the economy and the financial system but to create a new system because the old system has broken down. Words: 1285
Read More »