Economy

Trying to gauge where the economy is headed is almost always a waste of time. Instead, focus on the emotion and trend (price action); the trend is always your friend.

We're hurdling toward a massive financial crisis, and all we have to show for it are financial asset bubbles destined to burst, and when they do, they'll wipe out the artificial wealth they've created for many decades in just a few years, as they did from late 1929 into late 1932!

I believe it is too late to reverse the tidal wave of our financial system’s failure that has been brewing for three decades now. As such, in the next few weeks, an election event will take place that I believe could trigger major volatility ending in a market crash - a speculator implosion.

There is a strong belief that independent measures of inflation are false and not trustworthy. I address this issue and show how the rate of inflation is measured today, the historical background of it, and compare different methods to find out which one is closer to the truth.

Inflation does not reliably depend on employment so what other model could we depend on? Check out the model below that I have developed which strongly suggests core inflation has stabilized at around 2.2%.

Retail sales numbers for July came in at a disappointing 0.0% and, after backing out auto sales, retail sales actually declined by 0.3%. That's in spite of much lower gas prices and (supposedly) an improving job market so my guess is that American consumers are simply running into a brick wall of too much debt. This article suggests 9 companies that could prosper from such financially stressed-out consumers.

The Fed is considering raising its inflation target above 2% annually. This shift pushes the FOMC in a dovish direction and will reduce the market odds of interest rate hikes this year. It is positive news for the gold market.

Getting the inflation call right is one of the most important decisions an investor can make today. This article explains how the U.S. inflation outlook is becoming clearer with the use of a number of charts.

In a long-term strategy which employs both investments, there is a case for putting an over-weight on housing, and an under-weight on gold, given current relative price levels unless one is specifically investing for financial crisis.

With the Olympic Games underway, many eyes are on Rio...[and, as such,] investors...are...directing more attention to Brazil. While its stock market has had one of the world's best performances to date this year with the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index up more than 50%...[and] the MSCI Brazil Small Cap Index...[up] over 60%, the question now is, can the rally continue? My take is that it could potentially, but investors need to be willing to accept significant risk. [Let me explain.]