Economy

By enforcing negative interest rates and fighting a War on Cash, the government will create a huge underground currency market - and the ultimate underground currency will be gold and its sister metal, silver...[which] could cause gold to double or even triple in value.

In the vast majority of longer-term periods, history has shown that a stronger dollar has been better for U.S. equities than a weaker one. This article presents 2 charts that show the interaction between the U.S. dollar and equity prices to support the aforementioned conclusion. Words: 422

I have long been a critic of government inflation statistics. Not so much with regard to the methodology they use, but because the measure of “average” inflation across the broad economy doesn’t really describe the inflation that the majority of Americans experience. I’ve written about that at length in several letters and now my good friend Ron Arnott, along with his associate Lillian Wu, presents us with a research paper that lays out what inflation actually looks like for most Americans – and the picture is not pretty.

To most people, a depression means '30s-style conditions, and since they don't see that, they can't imagine a depression. That's because they know what the last depression was like, but they don't know what one is. It's hard to visualize something you don't understand...Nobody can predict with absolute certainty what this depression will be like...[but one] can be fairly well-assured it won't be an instant replay of the last one...To define the likely differences between this depres­sion and the last one, it's helpful to compare the situa­tion today to that in the early 1930s. The results aren't very reassuring.

The Chinese government is [trying to]...transition the economy away from its reliance on manufacturing, which is shrinking, into a service economy [but is failing to accomplish this objective in spite of] a glorious debt-and-stimulus binge for the past few months. [Unfortunately,] these policies [may do nothing more than] add to the already insurmountable mountain of debt [of which] a good part is now going bad.

Before the U.S. dollar became the world's reserve currency that honor was held by Britain, then France, the Netherlands, Spain & Portugal and the U.S. dollar is no less susceptible to succumbing to the same change. In fact, many nations have been actively turning their back on the dollar over the past decade.

People are once again fleeing into gold, silver. They’re dumping the dollar and stocks, and they’re betting big on volatility and fear. The irony is, though, that there is no fear according to the “fear index” that speaks of “complacency”. This utter disregard for reality by stock and bond investors, who now no longer feel the need to be compensated for the risks they’re taking, except at the very riskiest end of the scale, is one of the greatest accomplishments of central banks, and at the same time one of the greatest risks out there.

As the push for a $15 per hour minimum wage continues in earnest across America, policymakers had better consider the warning signs flashing from beleaguered Puerto Rico. Minimum wage policy was a major factor leading to the current crisis there.

Pemex, Mexico’s over-indebted, money-losing state-owned oil giant, appears to be in a state of terminal decline. To survive, it needs some last-minute reprieve or miracle...For the broader Mexican economy, Pemex’s woes are just part of the problem. With the overseas market for Pemex’s oil shrinking,...while the company’s production continues to crumble, Mexico will depend even more on its manufacturing sector but that too, is showing serious signs of strain.

Stan Druckenmiller had an incredible investing performance (a compounded annualized rate of return of 30% - without a single down year - over a 25 year period) which was rooted in his skills in making macroeconomic forecasts. Applying those skills to an analysis of our current & future economic situation he has concluded that America is heading for a disaster. Here's why.