Gold

An inordinate build-up of short positions in silver by the "smart money” or “insiders” implied lower gold and silver prices and the charts shown here confirmed that.

Gold is up significantly in 4 of the 7 top currencies (the euro, British pound, Australian and Canadian dollars), up respectably in 2 others (U.S. dollar and Japanese yen) and down slightly in the last (Swiss franc) demonstrating amply the value of gold as a hedge, not just against inflation, but against sudden currency devaluation and systemic financial and economic risks as well.

In spite of the fact that gold has rallied from a price of $1,140 last November, my long-term empirical model suggests it is still undervalued and has the potential to rally to $2,000 by late 2015 or 2016 and quite possibly to between $5,000 and $10,000 in six years time. This article explains why that is the case.

Over the years only 42 pundits have been bold enough to provide a specific date as to when their forecast for the future price of gold (and silver, in some cases) would be realized. This article provides that information along with the criteria & rationale for their determinations.

The internet is awash with analysts who believe that gold is going to $7,250+forecasting crystal ball and as low as $725 and that silver is going down to $12 or higher than $120. Such pundits (Roubini, Sinclair, Rickards, Willie and Edelson to name a few) grab a lot of attention in the media but are their prognostications worth paying attention to or are they just a lot of hot air?

The “year that was” brought mostly disappointment to precious metals bulls. Silver prices fell for the third straight year but when we finally see a major rotation out of stocks and into precious metals, silver has the potential to lead on the way up just as it has led on the way down. Let me explain why.

In spite of the positive change of behavior we have seen in gold and silver this past week with strong closes and increased volume - both attributes of buyers in more control than sellers - the weekly trend remains down. While we now see some steps in the right direction - a higher swing high - the market needs to prove itself and once that happens there will be ample opportunities to participate in the paper market.

For relevant analysis of gold prices, the so-called "fundamentals" provide scant help. What is required is an understanding of the macroeconomic drivers at play. This article addresses 9 such factors.

As a gold bull I want to believe that gold is going to start moving higher from here, but unfortunately I think the odds remain stacked against this, and that we will see further downside before the bull market resumes. I will first go through the reasons why I think this is the case and I will then discuss how to play this.

We do not engage in any “predictions” of what the market will do as it is an exercise in ego and folly, and a waste of time. One need only go back to those who are making predictions for 2015 and read what was predicted for 2014 for proof. All we can say is that little can be added to what has already been said and that is that the trend remains down in gold, and until there is evidence of a strong reversal, this market continues to move along the Right Hand Side of a weak Trading Range.