Stock Indices
Tuesday , 2 March 2021

Stock Indices

Is the Equity Bull Market Over?

The decline in the equity markets since the end of January has many asking if the bull market is over - and the short answer is no – there is still room for the market to run. That being said, there are a number of concerns that could keep the markets on edge and, were they to materialize, the result could be a correction similar to those that occurred in 2011-12 (-19.4%) and 2016 (-14.2%).

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Is Boomer Retirement Still Weighing Down U.S. Equity Markets?

Based on the strong historical relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance that has prevailed since the mid-1950s the upcoming waves of retirement of the baby boom generation born between 1946 and 1964 could push down U.S. equity markets. Why? Because, as boomers reach retirement age, they are likely to shift from buying stocks to selling them to finance retirement, and this massive sell-off could depress equity values. There appears to have been a breakup in that relationship of late, however, so what does that suggest for the timing and magnitude of any correction in the near future?

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Is This the “Mother Of All Blow-Offs?” Probably

Is this the “Mother Of All Blow-Offs?” Probably. Historically, this is the type of market behavior which has marked the blow-off top of speculative manias and has preceded serious market accidents. Chasing the price-momentum higher and waiting for a bigger idiot to buy shares from you works well until the music stops. Then everyone gets hurt.

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This Simple Indicator Suggests S&P 500 Still Far From A Bubble

...2017 provided many good times [but,] for worriers, the low volatility and steady gains of last year signal bad times are likely in 2018...[and] they have a point. It’s true that good times can’t last forever. [That being said,] it’s also true that we can spot when the good times have gone too far with this simple indicator.

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