Thursday , 2 July 2020


Stock Indices

S&P 500 & Dow 30 Index Performances: Illusion vs.Reality

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a fabricated number that has little relation to the actual average performance of the stock market as a whole. For sure, it is not industrial in nature, and by no means is it an average. It's like creating an all-star team of the very best-performing companies and broadcasting to the world that this is the average of all companies out there.

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These Indicators Suggest Stock Market Returns Are “Too Good To Be True”

Current macro conditions indicate that we are in a sweet spot for equity returns...that global growth is continuing and there is little or no tail risk in the immediate future. It's time to get long equities...but I have this nagging feeling that these market conditions are too good to be true. If you look, there are a number of technical and fundamental clouds on the horizon.

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These Charts Show That Any Fed Tapering WILL Cause Stock Markets to Collapse

Whenever the Fed has decided to reduce the extent of their purchases of "agency" debt products, the SP500 also declined in a dramatic way. [As such,]... it makes it extremely important to contemplate a “tapering” off in the rate of growth of Fed assets, or even an outright end to quantitative easing (QE). [Indeed, if you own stocks you may well want the Fed QEternity program to be just that - to eternity - in spite of the inflation that will surely follow.]

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Grantham: No Market Bubble for a While – But It’s Coming!

I would think that we are probably in the slow build-up to something interesting – a badly overpriced market and bubble conditions. My personal guess is that the U.S. market, especially the non-blue chips, will work its way higher, perhaps by 20% to 30% in the next year or, more likely, two years, with the rest of the world including emerging market equities covering even more ground in at least a partial catch-up.

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