Stock Indices

According to all sorts of financial media, the end of the fiscal world as we know it is about to occur. All rational individuals surely would come to the same conclusion, right? Wrong! For the past 3 years, the "world has been ending" according to nearly every publication. The market however, simply does not agree with this prognosis. Throughout the past 3 years, despite the negative headlines, the markets have rallied over 50% in wave after wave of briefly interrupted momentum. Given this continuous counter-intuitive bullish onslaught, and according to the volatility smile and the current positioning of money in the options market, I believe it is entirely possible for the S&P 500 to end the year...up 15% from its current price. [Let me explain.] Words: 829

According to all sorts of financial media, the end of the fiscal world as we know it is about to occur. All rational individuals surely would come to the same conclusion, right? Wrong! For the past 3 years, the "world has been ending" according to nearly every publication. The market however, simply does not agree with this prognosis. Throughout the past 3 years, despite the negative headlines, the markets have rallied over 50% in wave after wave of briefly interrupted momentum. Given this continuous counter-intuitive bullish onslaught, and according to the volatility smile and the current positioning of money in the options market, I believe it is entirely possible for the S&P 500 to end the year...up 15% from its current price. [Let me explain.] Words: 829

The whole world of fundamental and technical analysis seems to be in a state of chronic confusion - confounded by this seemingly trendless stock market....[Usually] the stock market possesses the ability to forecast coming events but the periodic spates of Fed stimulation have thrown some sand into the stock market's delicate machine....Thus, we see the stock market ‘up on Fed-created stilts’ and at the same time we see depressing economic news in the newspaper headlines. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are sitting on near-record lows. We're seeing a strange paradox here.

We are continuing to see ongoing pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices [but if you are a contrarian you should bet on a continued rise in stocks despite the continued sense of unease. Let's take a look at a few charts that tell the story.] Words: 510

Looking at the charts we...[see] a very strong double-top formation - very similar to what we saw back in 1980....[which suggests] that we are headed all the way back down again, possibly even to the lows that we saw in 2011....This is likely to weigh on equities. Words: 291

Being a true contrarian investor isn’t just about investing in unloved sectors of the market or specific stocks. It’s also about conducting research and discovering indicators that the crowd doesn’t follow — indicators that can help give clues as to the next probable direction of risk assets. I’m always on the lookout for such indicators, and have compiled many of them over my years of trading and investing. [Here's just one that bares scrutiny. Take a look.] Words: 610

The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. My latest estimates [suggest] that the broad stock market is about 33% above its arithmetic mean and 42% above its geometric mean......Periods of over- and under-valuation can last for many years at a time, however, so the Q Ratio is not a useful indicator for short-term investment timelines [and, as such,] is more appropriate for formulating expectations for long-term market performance. [Let me review the Q ratio with you, along with several graphs, so you can clearly understand what the Q ratio is, how it works and what it is currently conveying.] Words: 800

Goldman Sachs reports their Global Economic Indicators (GLI) show the world has re-entered a contraction and...is predicting a market crash worse than that of the early 90′s recession and one slightly less than the sell-off at the turn of the millennium. [Below are graphs to support their contentions.] Words: 250

With the Presidential vote now just five months away on November 6, many investors are beginning to debate which candidate may be best for the stock market. Recent history serves as an instructive guide to determine whether a second Obama term or a new Romney presidency might be better for investment markets over the next four years. [Read on!] Words: 1400

As investors become more and more worried about the world economy...it makes sense to us to look into stocks that held up best in periods of market decline. Managing risk is as important as reaching for return. One aspect of managing for risk is the past behavior of particular stocks in negative market periods. Toward that end, we identified four key, recent down periods for the S&P 500, and identified those liquid stocks that were in the top quartile for price return in each of those four periods, and did at least as well as the S&P 500 index in the 2008 crash period. [Take a look!] Words: 620