Stock Indices

As investors, we can form expectations of the future based on a number of factors and adjust our risk and investment thesis as we learn more and as the analyses below show, IF mean reversion occurs in price and valuations, then our expectations should be for losses over the coming 10 years. The analyses below offer substantial clues.

If there is a recession in the next one to two years, there is also likely to be another bear market for stocks...[and this article] shows why the base case for a new bear market could be a two year inflation-adjusted loss of 36%, which would exceed anything experienced in the 1960s, 1980s or 1990s.

As can be seen from the above analysis the DJIA moves opposite to the direction of the GOR so it is imperative to watch the GOR as it provides a very reliable indicator of the direction the DJIA is about to embark on.

A devastating crash looks imminent and full defensive mode is the order of the day.

In 11 of 13 rate cut cycles over the past 65 years gold stocks have enjoyed tremendous gains. The historical data shows an average gain of over 170% and median gain of almost 150% and the market is 84% convinced that the Fed will announce a rate cut in September. That would trigger a strong run into year end.

...Today’s infographic comes to us from Fisher Investments, and it describes the anatomy of market corrections, while also visualizing much of the data around these common events....

The S&P GSCI – which tracks prices for 24 commonly traded commodities relative to the S&P 500 - is the most important chart in the resource space today and it's telling us that commodities are primed for their biggest rally of the last 50 years.

It’s been a decade since the financial crisis lows, and two decades since the 1999 stock market blow-off bubble top. In today’s chart, we put our party hats on as we look at an interesting stock market ratio: the S&P 500 / NYSE Ratio.

Is the S&P kissing the underside of “Dual Resistance” for the first time in history? Looks like it! Does that mean the market is topping here?

This is a critical point for investors and, while it's difficult to know what's in store for any coming decade, it's not impossible to know. This article explores the accuracy and reliability of 10-year forecasts and offers one of its own.