Sunday , 31 May 2020


Stock Indices

Why Has the Market Declined So Little Despite the Negativity? What's Next?

In the face of the now-obvious negative outlook - the corrosive effect of deflation deleveraging, excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the "fiscal cliff", the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and the prospect that corporate earnings estimates were far too high - the question we get most often is why the market has declined so little, and why it seems so resistant to bad news. In our view the reluctance of the market to give up much ground is typical of....Words: 356

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Why Has the Market Declined So Little Despite the Negativity? What’s Next?

In the face of the now-obvious negative outlook - the corrosive effect of deflation deleveraging, excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the "fiscal cliff", the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and the prospect that corporate earnings estimates were far too high - the question we get most often is why the market has declined so little, and why it seems so resistant to bad news. In our view the reluctance of the market to give up much ground is typical of....Words: 356

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80%+ Chance Stocks Will Rally by End of 2012 – Here's Why

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) released its latest sentiment readings yesterday...[which showed that] bullish sentiment dropped a full eight percentage points to 22.19%, the largest weekly decline since April 12....Now that virtually no one is optimistic about the stock market, that’s all the more reason we should be bullish. You see, during the current bull market, when bullish sentiment drops below 25%, stocks (almost) always rally over the next three and six months. Take a look. Words: 384

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80%+ Chance Stocks Will Rally by End of 2012 – Here’s Why

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) released its latest sentiment readings yesterday...[which showed that] bullish sentiment dropped a full eight percentage points to 22.19%, the largest weekly decline since April 12....Now that virtually no one is optimistic about the stock market, that’s all the more reason we should be bullish. You see, during the current bull market, when bullish sentiment drops below 25%, stocks (almost) always rally over the next three and six months. Take a look. Words: 384

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S&P 500’s Performance Will Determine If, and When, We Have QE3 – Here’s Why

If you are angry about LIBOR – angry that 18 banks can set one of the world’s most important interest rates in such a poorly supervised, ill-understood manner - you should be even angrier that just 12 people sitting in a room can set the world’s single most important interest rate to suit the needs of the stock market, all under the pretence of controlling inflation? Let me explain. Words: 810

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S&P 500's Performance Will Determine If, and When, We Have QE3 – Here's Why

If you are angry about LIBOR – angry that 18 banks can set one of the world’s most important interest rates in such a poorly supervised, ill-understood manner - you should be even angrier that just 12 people sitting in a room can set the world’s single most important interest rate to suit the needs of the stock market, all under the pretence of controlling inflation? Let me explain. Words: 810

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S&P 500 Prospects Not Good Given Economic Situations in Europe & Asia – Here’s Why

...[V]iewed objectively, the world currently stands at the precipice of an even greater crisis than the one in 2008-2009 but you wouldn't know it by looking at US stock prices. The S&P 500 is down only about 10% from its peak levels in October 2007 compared to the leading indicator stock markets in Spain, Italy and China which...are all down by 60% or more since their peaks. It is folly to think that the S&P 500 index can long withstand simultaneous conflagrations in those countries because, as their economies go, so too will the entire global economy and [that is bound to adversely affect the U.S. as] close to 50% of all S&P 500 earnings are derived from outside the U.S.. Words: 840

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S&P 500 Prospects Not Good Given Economic Situations in Europe & Asia – Here's Why

...[V]iewed objectively, the world currently stands at the precipice of an even greater crisis than the one in 2008-2009 but you wouldn't know it by looking at US stock prices. The S&P 500 is down only about 10% from its peak levels in October 2007 compared to the leading indicator stock markets in Spain, Italy and China which...are all down by 60% or more since their peaks. It is folly to think that the S&P 500 index can long withstand simultaneous conflagrations in those countries because, as their economies go, so too will the entire global economy and [that is bound to adversely affect the U.S. as] close to 50% of all S&P 500 earnings are derived from outside the U.S.. Words: 840

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