Wednesday , 21 October 2020


Stock Indices

This Pattern Forecast the Crash

Given that the financial system is now even more leveraged than it was during the tech bubble… and that we’ve added TRILLIONS in debt to the U.S.’s balance sheet...another systemic collapse [was to be expected and, in fact, was predicted by]... a stock market pattern that has occurred multiple times in the last century - and everytime it did, things got UGLY [- just like it is doing this time. Let's take a look.] Words: 422

Read More »

Don't Buy Yet – Wait Until a Renewed Uptrend is Confirmed!

[To say that the market has capitulated] implies that the market has bottomed and that now is a good time to buy stocks. In my opinion, that is completely wrong. The market is building momentum to the downside...[and] the odds are that the inevitable reactionary bounce is a short reprieve on the way further down. If the capitulation results in a new and meaningful uptrend (and that is a big “if”), we will see that in the charts. Words: 552

Read More »

Market Crash Will Hit By Christmas 2011! Here's Why

At the beginning of 2011 USA Today reported...[that] Ned Davis Research says the S&P 500 will make a run at the 2007 high of 1,565, hit a “midyear peak” [and] then it will crash as interest rates rise...concluding that “the midyear peak could mark the end of the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 and the start of a new cyclical bear market.” Words: 637

Read More »

Why the Dow Could Hit 20,000 by 2014

To move up from the current 12,600 level to 20,000 by the summer of 2014, the Dow would need to rise about 16.5% each year or about 58% in a three-year period and in the past 25 years the Dow has risen by this much on at least 13 occasions. During those times, there was only one period of sustained annual gains, when the Dow rose an average of 26% from 1995 through 1999. The key question: what would it take to justify a three-year, steady, robust gain? It all comes down to corporate profits [and the extent to which] multiple investors are willing to assign [dollars] to these profits. [Let me explain.] Words: 761

Read More »

Any Way You Look At It the S&P 500 is Overvalued In Excess of 40%!

The S&P 500 is considerably overvalued - somewhere in the range of 34% to 61% - depending on which of 4 market valuation indicators are used and whether the valuation is based on the arithmetric or geometric mean of each. While these findings are not useful as short-term signals of market direction...they play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns and suggest a cautious outlook and guarded expectations. [Here are the details.] Words: 676

Read More »

A Violent Correction Is Coming For the S&P 500! Here's Why

Valuation-based forecasting models leave little doubt that stocks are priced to deliver very poor long-term returns and the cyclical bull market from 2009 is an extreme move that will almost certainly be followed by a violent correction. [Let me explain.] Words: 701

Read More »

Dow 20,000: the Latest in Hype, Happy Talk and Irrational Exuberance

Hot headlines about the Dow “storming back soon,” soaring to the “Next Stop, Dow 20,000” is nothing more than a new cycle of irrational exuberance. After losing an inflation-adjusted 20% the last decade, a prediction that the Dow will roar back 80% anytime soon is misleading, pure speculative hype. Reminds me of book titles like “Dow 36,000” and “Dow 100,000” back in 1999 - and memories of those mutual funds selling with absurd multiples over 40, with annual returns in excess of 100%. Worse than the tulip-bulb mania of the 1590s. What’s really roaring back is hype, happy talk and irrational exuberance. Words: 531

Read More »

Stock Market is Due for a 15-20% Correction – Here's Why

Corporate America has been flying high since the recession, barely looking back since March 2009. The 70% rally in the S&P 500 in just under 2 years has been astounding to say the least - but are we really in 70% better shape as a nation since March 2009? No way! The dollar has continued to decrease in value, investments that feed off fear like gold and silver have soared....housing prices are still as low as in 2009, when they "crashed." The signs of a major market correction...[are] right in front of us... no one seems to notice [but I do]. I believe we could soon experience a market correction of from 15% to 20%. Let me explain why. Words: 913

Read More »