Stock Indices

The historical performance of the weeks ahead offers a glimmer of hope for continued equity strength in 2019. While past performance is by no means indicative of future results, a statistical observation of the weeks ahead favors the bull.

This article focuses on indicators that are of medium to long-term relevance to prospective stock market returns telling us something about the likely duration and severity of the bust that will follow on the heels of the current market mania.

Multiple indicators are flashing warning signs that I believe are being ignored by short-termism and overly excited market prognosticators.

We believe a series of lower closes beneath the 200-day moving average (currently 2752 in the March futures) could be enough to awaken the sleeping bear from his short hibernation.

Mining stocks are facing an opportunity they haven’t seen many times in the past 8-years!

Take a look! The economy is slowing and corporate profits have peaked so how could stocks possibly be entering a new bull market and making a run to new all-time highs in the months ahead?

Whether you are a businessman or an ordinary citizen concerned about what’s going on in the world, the yield curve is something you should care about as it is probably the single best indicator of an upcoming recession and where the markets are headed.

Some veteran investors and traders see the current market situation as a repeat of early-2008, in which stocks fell while gold went up. That being said the bull market’s top isn’t necessarily in but risk:reward does favor long-term bears.

Don’t fall in love with this stock market rally. With most major averages having achieved sub-20% declines in recent weeks, stocks are likely in the early stages of a bear market. Although stocks could go marginally higher in the short-term, they ultimately will likely continue to slip sideways and slide downwards to a bottom somewhere around the 1,500-1,800 level on the S&P 500,

It is a pure leap of faith to believe that if the Plunge Protection Team is indeed directly intervening, that it is acting in the interests of the average investor.