A few years back I published an article that itemized what 148 supposed experts of the day were predicting for the future price of gold and as it turns out none of them – not one – knew what they were talking about. By trying to do so they were all playing a fool’s game, a game reserved for the brave but foolhardy.
By Lorimer Wilson
In fact, as published in that seminal article (see here):
- All 148 projected that gold would eventually exceed $2,500/ozt.,
- 100 forecast gold reaching at least $5,000/ozt.,
- 17 predicted a parabolic peak price of as much as $10,000 per troy ounce and
- 12 are on record as saying gold could go even higher than that.
Visit the article and you will recognize dozens of “analysts” who are STILL ardent cheerleaders for gold. It’s easy to conclude from that article (and the more recent “guesses” as itemized at the bottom of the article) that:
- What appears to be a reasoned forecast from a reputable source is often little more than a guess, or perhaps wishful thinking.
- Forecasting the price of anything amounts to predicting the future and no one can actually predict the future, much as they might wish to or believe they can.
- If you really could predict the future, including the gold price, why would you work for an employer? Indeed, you could simply work for yourself and make endless amounts of money.
- Chart analysis is supposed to provide insight into the future but while charting is excellent for telling you where prices have been, it will not tell you where prices are going. Indeed, if a particular charting technique really did work we would all know about it by now and know what future gold prices would be.
Forecasting is for the brave but foolhardy and we have no shortages of fools to go around!
Most Recent Guesses
It is safe to say that the upside potential is significant in both gold and gold mining stocks over the next few years. Here’s why.
Based on the facts we have today, I believe that the long wave in gold will take it up to between $3,000 and $5,000 per troy ounce over the next few years.
My long-standing target for gold of $10,000 in today’s money and much, much higher in inflationary terms, is now more probable than ever but I hope it will never be achieved. When gold goes to $10,000, It will not just reflect inflation and falling currencies like in the 1970s but a much more serious or even catastrophic situation both in the U.S. and globally so let’s look at a potential scenario for the next few years. This is obviously not a forecast but more of a rough sketch of what could happen:
The future price of gold is very much dependent upon the reactions of governments and central banks regarding the current deflationary forces. $3,000 – $5,000 per ounce is quite possible at some time in 2020 – 2022, if not sooner.
Gold is gaining momentum after a 5-year consolidation and is set to challenge the 2011 highs some time next year. Once gold clears $2,000, a powerful bull market should drive the gold price meaningfully higher.
We are now starting the hyper-inflationary phase in the USA and many other countries as a result of the accelerated fall of the U.S. dollar and this will be reflected in the parabolic rise in the price of gold over the next few years.
After two years of declines, many investors sold their gold holdings and vowed never to invest in gold again. However, in the fall of 1976, gold began an ascent that saw it rise 750%, peaking at $850 a troy ounce three years and four months later. After a 3-year correction, the same opportunity to buy low exists today, just as it did in 1976.
The consequences of the total economic mismanagement by world governments and central banks for the last hundred years will eventually result in my forecast of $10,000 gold and $500 silver being fulfilled.
Optimism, hype, wishful thinking, hope – call it what you will (unabashed cheerleading?) – abounds regarding the future for the price of both gold and silver. Below are just a few such views.
Nobody can predict what the stock market will do so basing your investment decision on market or economic predictions is a fool’s game.