We do not know what the tipping point will be for the turnaround in gold & silver prices, but it will certainly show up in the charts – eventually. For now, there is still no ending action to the current decline. All we can do is read developing market activity and look for tell-tale signs when they do show [and here’s what they are currently saying.]
So says Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com) in paraphrased excerpts from his original article* entitled Gold And Silver – Your Economical Survival Depends On Them.
[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]
Noonan goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
The decline is holding near the last swing low. Will the June low hold? The odds are greater for the low not holding, based on the trend, but there is no way to determine the probability of the June low giving way, for it is possible it will not. For now, the 9 week rally from that low is undergoing a correction, currently in its 14th week…
As can be seen in the charts below, the ranges of the last 6 weeks down are smaller. There is not as much Ease of Downward Movement which says that:
- sellers are not as strong or
- buyers are meeting the effort of sellers, more so than in the past since the highs or
- a combination of the two.
The mid-range close from last week shows evidence of buyers successfully defending the low, and that requires a closer look at the daily chart to see if more can be read into that observation.
Gold – Daily Chart
Last Wednesday’s large, high volume rally bar needs to be watched to see how it is retested. The how of any price reaction often provides important clues. If price narrows and the volume declines on a retest, it lets us know sellers are weak, and buyers can more easily take control. If price declines in a wide range bar and closes poorly, we know sellers are still in control. Next week should give some kind of answer.
There is no question that the trend remains down, and there is no sign of a turnaround.
Gold – Weekly Chart
What is known about bars that overlap is they reflect a balanced struggle between buyers and sellers. On the weekly chart as seen below, price is well away from the upper channel line. On the daily, above, the upper channel line is being retested. The upper line represents supply, (selling) and the lower channel line represents demand, (buying).
Because price is bumping up against a known supply area, it illustrates why the bars are overlapping, showing the balanced struggle between buyers and sellers as just explained. All that can be said is that control by sellers appears to be weakening. That happens in all declining markets, but a weakening of the trend does not mean that it has ended.
Of late, silver has been relatively weaker than gold.
Silver – Daily Chart
Note below how the last three closes were in the upper range of each bar. That tells us buyers won the battle on each of those days. Many more battles will have to be won before the tide of the “trend war” changes.
Silver – Weekly Chart
The thin line connecting the recent swing highs and lows in the chart below shows a time frame of 23 weeks in the August high October low decline, and the current low is the 24th week since the late October swing high.
Sometimes, markets rhyme in time. What matters the most is how price behaves. The swing low timing gives greater reason to watch how price responds at the current lows for a possible rally turnaround.
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
Selection of Previous Noonan Articles:
No matter what the latest “news” development is for PMs that paints a rosy picture, those in the fundamentalist camp are looking through rose-colored glasses to expect change in the near future. The charts for gold & silver continue to tell a more accurate story that belie all known fundamentals, and the charts shown here depict a market in decline with no apparent end in sight. Read More »
Fundamentals are relative, charts are absolute. They accurately reflect all that is going on, regardless of reasoning/motivation and…right now, the charts are letting us know that higher PM prices are unlikely to occur anytime soon. Barring some kind of “overnight surprise” that will shock the markets, odds favor lower prices over higher prices unless and until demand shows up in chart activity. Read More »
It takes time to turn a market around, and silver is in that process. There is no degree of certainty that a bottom has been reached, but there exist at least a probability the recent lows may hold. Whether the lows hold or not, one cannot lose sight of why accumulating silver has been so important. When price finally accelerates higher, the trying of one’s patience will quickly be forgotten and all will be well. Read More »
Some of the finest and most highly regarded minds in the world of PMs have been saying gold and silver are going higher…[but] the charts have “said” otherwise, and that has been the correct read…The fundamentals may be as bullish as can be [but] the charts are sending a different message. Read More »
Using past history of how price responds, it is likely that gold, and silver, could move sideways for another year or two. While this flies in the face of so many current, supposedly “expert”, opinions [mine is not based on opinion but, rather, is strictly based on the facts as conveyed by the charts. Take a look and you will see that too!] Read More »
Below is a perfect example of how the charts timed the movement in the price of gold and silver over the past week. Yes, you CAN time the market as this article clearly demonstrates! When the market “talks,” we listen.] Read More »
The window of opportunity to buy physical gold and silver continues to narrow. Like the housing market top was known to be coming, when it came, those who waited too long regretted it. When the bottom for the physical PMs is known as a certainty, those who waited for a “better price” may also regret that decision. It is all about choice. Read More »
In an election, it does not matter if voter turnout is high or low, the outcome is determined by the actual votes cast. The same holds true for the markets. Only those who make an actual buy or sell decision determine the outcome of the market trend. The market “voters” turn up in charts, recorded in the price range, close, and volume. Collectively, a “story” unfolds, and it usually is an accurate one as it does not include any opinions. Opinions do not matter. Articles written about fundamentals, pundit declarations, etc., all fall under the category of opinions. The market is the best source for information, and that is a fact. Read More »
…Fiats have an unbroken track record of failing throughout all of history. Gold also has an unbroken track record of being a store of value for over 5,000 years. Yes, there have been hiccups along the way, and we are in one now. It is what it is, but what it is is also an incredible buying opportunity at “fire sale” prices….[That being said,] a look at the charts of the paper-tracked PM market [beg the question] … “Where’s the beef?” Where is the substance of anything? We see none in the charts. Take a look. Words: 610; Charts :4 Read More »
Technical analysis is a measure different from fundamental analysis…and we qualifying our approach with a specialized subset of technical analysis. How so? We read price and volume behavior, over time, in the form of developing market activity. It is what one sees on a chart, price ranges, close locations, volume, time factor[s], but no more. Below are charts that suggest that the weakness in silver may be coming to an end, sooner now rather than later, but that for now, it is what it is – and what is, is reality. Read More »
You will read more and more articles touting how gold and silver have bottomed. They have not, at least according to price behavior as determined by actual buyers and sellers in the market. Read More »
Charts speak the loudest…and they never lie…[because they are] the true record of all buy and sell decisions executed, coming from the most informed to the least informed. Most of the problems lie with those who form an opinion, and how they choose to impose it onto what any given chart “says.” My understanding of what the quarterly monthly, weekly and daily charts are conveying about the price action of silver is, simply,] “Silver stackers, these lower prices are a gift you should keep on taking. Stay tuned.” Read More »
Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right in the last 18 months. All have been calling for considerably higher prices. Over the past several months none called for sub-$1,300 gold and sub-$20 silver. Crystal balls do not work and never have. When it comes to markets, anything can happen [but the charts convey that] there is no apparent ending action suggesting a selling climax or even a cause for a reaction rally. Take a look. Read More »