So says Dave Glen (http://randomglenings.blogspot.ca) in edited excerpts from his original article*.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), may have edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page for details. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Glen goes on to say, in part:[The] Free Exchange blog (courtesy of the Economist magazine) discussed the work of economists Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, who both work at the International Monetary Fund. They examined 147 banking crises dating from 1970, and found that, [as the chart below indicates,] the most dangerous times in the banking sector tend to occur in early fall and that September is typically the month in which most banking crises occurred.
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Why…[the above happens] is not clear, but the authors…[state that:] In terms of the real effects of banking crises, we find that advanced economies tend to experience larger output losses and increases in public debt than emerging and developing countries. These larger output losses in advanced economies are to some extent driven by deeper banking systems, which makes a banking crisis more disruptive….
If history is any guide, then, the best advice for the summer might be to rest!
*http://randomglenings.blogspot.ca/2012/06/take-summer-off.html (To access the above article please copy the URL and paste it into your browser.)
Editor’s Note: The above article may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
Predicting dire scenarios for the euro zone has become a cottage industry. Each day well-respected economists and investors explain why the collective economies of Europe are doomed – that it’s only a matter of time – but I outline here 3 reasons why becoming too gloomy on Europe might be the wrong approach. Words: 600