Wednesday , 21 October 2020

Silver Could Drop to $7 and Oil To $20 in Coming Recession! Here’s Why (+8K Views)

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…Investing in this metal is pure speculation with very little fundamental support… If the economy collapses silver prices will crash along with every other commodity…10 Ounce Silver Bullion Bars

…There is no reason for investors to believe precious metals like silver are any different, or somehow immune from the factors currently crushing the prices of oil and the other commodities. Right now we have crested the boom cycle and commodity prices are entering a long term bear market. On top of this, the economy of China is slowing and U.S GDP growth figures are constantly being revised downward. This does not bode well for silver, because demand for commodities depends on economic growth and if growth falters silver will fail. There is no glamour here, only cold hard facts.

Most of the talk about silver centers on its usage as an investment vehicle, but investment is only a small portion of what drives the price of the metal. Silver is primarily an industrial and consumer discretionary ingredient, in fact over 70% of the metals usage is for economic output. This means only a tiny fraction of silver production goes toward investment, and most of this is metal is held by the silver ETFs and brazenly manipulated…@A Financial Site For Sore Eyes & Inquisitive Minds

Silver is primarily used in industrial applications, especially electronics… because it has the highest electric conductivity, thermal conductivity and contact resistance of any metal. To date no other substance can replicate the properties of silver cost efficiently and there is little risk of obsolescence at current prices. However, while silver’s role in industry is unassailable it does not have this same strength in its other usages…

Silver’s usage: A tiny fraction used for investment

Solar energy is a bullish factor

There are bullish factors for silver. The growing importance of solar energy (photovoltaic technology) provides an opportunity for growth in the metals industrial use. Silver demand in the energy industry has made up for much of the economic value it lost during decline of the traditional photograph technology it was once used in.

Photovoltaic technology has been growing steadily in the U.S, especially after the government committed to over-investing in the late 2000’s in the sector after the 2007 financial crisis…[which,] coincidentally, mark the height of the silver price bubble we saw around that same time. While this seems like a clear case of supply and demand determining prices, looking deeper into the situation reveals problems with this conclusion.

A tale of two bubbles

Silver has had two major rallies in modern history both of…[which] were speculative bubbles with little (usually coincidental) correlation to the metals actual economic demand.

Anatomy of irrational exuberance: Investors expected $100 silver

  1. The first modern silver bubble occurred in the early 80’s as the Hunt brothers, two Texas billionaires, attempted to corner the silver market. They did this by buying massive amounts of the metal on the commodity markets with leverage. At the height of this attempt, these two men were able to control the 1/3rd of the entries worlds supply of silver, driving the price up the metal up 712% in a week.
  2. The second silver bubble occurred in 2011 and was commonly assumed to be caused by supply shortages and increasing photovoltaic demand. This wasn’t the case. Photovoltaic requires an ultra pure silver (.9999) which is not used as bullion and doesn’t factor into the supply/demand situation for the common .999 and sterling physical. Backwardation and an unprepared bullion industry compounded the myth of a supply shortage…

Just as stocks tend to move with each other in the equity markets. (think NASDAQ vs S&P 500) commodity prices do the same. However, while stocks can trade for a long periods of time based on speculation and future earnings the price of commodities is determined by one thing above all else; economic demand.

When economic demand does not justify price a commodity will slowly sink back down to its cost of production. This is what recently happened to oil, and this is what will continue happening to silver. For this reason, any premium significantly above silver’s cost of production (that cannot be justified economic demand) should be seen as a bubble because it will not last.

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Economic outlook and investor expectations

The current and future economic outlook for commodities is not good…despite the supposedly strong U.S economy. If, and [indeed] when the U.S economy goes into recession commodity prices will fall to levels we would have previously found unimaginable. This could be $20/bbl oil and $7/ozt silver…

Editor’s Note:  The original article, by “Gold Bug”  has been edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) above for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read.  The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.  Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor. Also note that this complete paragraph must be included in any re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

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  1. Pretty poor take by the author. Silver has been and will be an inflation hedge against the coming stagflation or hyper-inflation. Let’s say a gallon of gas cost .25 cents in 1950 and a gallon of gas today costs 2.00. I can take my 1950 90% silver quarter to the LCS and get (current spot 27.39) $4.95. So I can go buy that same gallon of gas in 2020 with that 1950 90% silver quarter and “profit” $2.95.

    There is so much more to silver’s use cases than what the author cherry picked for their silver bear article. This is either a case of being malinformed or just straight up dishonesty.

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