Tag Archives: 200-day moving average

If a strategy, model, or indicator can’t even beat brain-dead buy and hold, then it doesn’t have much value [and that is the case with the 200 day moving average]. For every one time it does work, there are two times it doesn’t work. In other words, technical analysis gives you too many false signals that causes you to underperform buy and hold. Here's proof.

The stock market does not turn on a dime... at least historically that's been the case. There was always a distinctive topping process going on before the bear finally struck. In every case you can look back and detect the same pattern: a marked deterioration of market internals and of interest rate based indicators before any crash so, if history is our guide, we should not expect this time to be different. So, what should we look for?

The Russell 3000, a broad equity index representing 98% of the investable U.S. stock market, is up 9.3% for 2014 on a total-return basis...[but] the median total return for Russell 3000 constituents is just 1.5% reflecting the fact that small- and mid-cap stocks are under-performing... This current alarming deterioration in breadth, a term that refers to how much of the market is participating in the advance, begs the question: "Is the stock market sitting on a trap door?" This article looks at 2 trap door indicators that suggest that that might, indeed, be the case.

Below is a description of what I believe to be the best stock market indicator – ever. I am referring to the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA which gives traders a clear early warning signal of impending serious market downturns and later safe re-entry points.

There is more than enough reason to believe that U.S. stocks are in a bear market regardless of what percentage drop has taken place. [Let's take a look at stock momentum, various moving averages, volatility and certain technical indicators to see what they have to say in this regard.] Words: 700

Recent stock market action has brought the major indexes into at least a correction zone, if not an outright new bear market. So, if this is a new bear market, how can you dodge another bear bite? [I have 4 suggestions on how to do just that. Read on!] Words: 746