Saturday , 19 September 2020


Tag Archives: Black Swan event

“Unlikely” Doesn’t Mean “Never”: “Rare” Events Happen Surprisingly Frequently in the Markets (+3K Views)

By definition, rare events should seldom occur and applying that understanding to financial markets assumes that all market events follow a normal distribution or, in layman's terms, a bell-shaped curve. More specifically, the statistics say that 99.7% of all daily movements should fall within three standard deviations of the mean, no more. Well, guess what? New research suggests that they clearly don't follow such a pattern - that "unlikely" doesn't mean "never". [Let me expand on that.] Words: 1079; Charts: 1

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Alf Field: Will Derivative Losses Be Black Swan Event Propelling Gold to $4,500? (+2K Views)

To achieve the EW target of $4,500/ozt. on the next upward move [in gold that I laid out in my article Alf Field: Correction in Gold is OVER and on Way to $4,500+!] will require something to trigger substantial new buying of gold. What could that event be? By definition, it will be a surprise to all market participants, a “black swan” event. That doesn’t prevent us from making a guess [and] one likely area from which problems could emerge...[would be] derivatives. [Let me explain why that might well be the case.] Words: 591

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