Tag Archives: Canadian house prices

Canadian households are heavily leveraged and with their level of debt in proportion to income now hovering at record levels, they are vulnerable to a range of economic shocks that could create a financial crisis. I am of the opinion, however, that the range of variables at play discussed in this article would mitigate any possibility of a meltdown of Canada's financial system. Let me explain.

The Canadian housing market is headed for a significant bust, in my view. It's going to be a repeat of the 2008 mortgage bubble deflation. Only it's happening to the north. People will lose a lot of money but those who understand and are properly positioned may gain fortunes.

[To repeat,] Canada's concentrated bet on real estate and construction, while creating jobs in the short term, is putting Canadian economy at greater risk in the future [and, with it unlikely that] Canadian households will significantly increase disposable income in the near future, any deleveraging could therefore prove to be quite painful.

According to the Case-Shiller 10-City index Canadian house prices only appreciated by 84% between 1990 and 2006 compared to 181% in the U.S.. However, as U.S. prices plunged by almost 33% between the peak in April 2006 and the trough in May 2009, the chart below shows that Canadian home prices continued to rise, driven by very low interest rates and relatively benign unemployment. By July 2012, they had reached similar heights as U.S. prices before their decline and fall. I believe that house prices and consumer debt levels are overextended in Canada and that a "Minsky-moment" may be developing in Canadian credit markets. [Let me explain why I have come to that conclusion.] Words: 1892

Canada's housing prices continue to escalate [there has been no housing collapse as there has been in the U.S., Spain, U.K., Australia and elsewhere over the past 4-6 years] but concern is rising as to whether they are now, finally, 'in a bubble' and about to correct either modestly or severely. This article discusses what would cause a change in direction in Canadian housing prices. Words: 500

Canadians are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a housing correction, exposing them to a perfect storm of high debt and falling assets, the Bank of Canada warns...suggesting that many Canadians have constructed their finances on a house of cards, with ever rising home values the key and vulnerable support. [Sound familiar?] Words: 770

The ownership premium in Canada's largest cities is unprecedented, dangerous to new buyers, and unlikely to persist - and if analogies to the U.S. situation at its peak back in 2005 are at all valid, this is bad news. [Let me explain.] Words: 430

One typically doesn’t look to government bureaucracies to receive hard-nosed, objective discussions on the economy so you can magine my surprise when the latest Financial System Review, published semi-annually by the Bank of Canada, landed in my inbox and I discovered that it contained a very sobering look at Canada’s economy and the many systemic risks the country is facing! It’s not surprising that this report was not picked up by the main stream news, because if they did the popular opinion of Canada’s invincible, recession-proof economy might begin to crumble. [Let me explain.] Words: 2400