Tag Archives: Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Our economic situation is vastly misunderstood and the future adverse consequences of this misunderstanding can not be understated. To highlight the tenuous situation I present below 10 charts on the economy that highlight the "atypical" nature of our economic situation a full 73 months after the official June 2009 end of the recession. To say there is much “on the line” here would be a complete understatement.

If you're inclined to sit on the fence these days in the delicate art of anticipating the next phase of the business cycle, you'll get no argument from the latest update on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monster index of indexes that encompasses 85 measures of U.S. economic activity. This benchmark has weakened this year but it's still not flashing a formal prediction of economic contraction...[Let me explain.] Words: 255

Is a second recession in so short of a time in the offing? It certainly seems that way. The hope for a continued recovery has grown dim lately as many of the economic indexes are moving towards contractionary territory... There are several concerns pressing the U.S. economy and, in the words of David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, "one small shock" could send us into a second recession. [We, for our part, believe that even] another round of Quantitative Easing by the Fed...may not be enough to offset the real problems facing the U.S. economy. [Let's take a closer look.] Words: 1295