The recent turbulence in global markets is a signal that the potential for macro risk is on the rise. One way to quantify the threat for the U.S. economy is by monitoring four financial stress indexes that are published by regional Fed banks. The following is a summary of where we stand at the moment, based on numbers collected this morning (Oct. 30).
Read More »Three indexes of the Federal Reserve...calculate and report statistical measures of financial stress in the U.S. economy on a regular basis...[and] all three have returned to their pre-recession levels last seen in May 2007. [What does that mean for stock market valuations? Let's take a look.]
Read More »None of the three different statistical measures of financial stress released this week suggest any conditions in the financial markets that would indicate that the U.S. economy is in a recession already, and none of them are exhibiting any upward trends that would point to a pending recession. In fact, all three stress measures have been trending downward through 2012, indicating that there is less financial stress now than at the beginning of the year. [Take a look at what each has to say and judge for yourself.] Words: 571
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