cyclically adjusted P/E ratio Archives -
Friday , 27 November 2020

Tag Archives: cyclically adjusted P/E ratio

Shiller & Siegel Forecasts of Future Real Stock Market Returns Differ Considerably

By smoothing out the effect of the business cycle on corporate earnings, investors get a truer picture of how expensively or cheaply stocks are priced. Yale professor Robert Shiller has popularized this concept and packaged it as the Shiller P/E ratio, alternatively known as the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, and it has become a widely followed and efficacious stock market valuation measure. Currently the ratio is standing at a 21.4 (approximately 30% higher than its long-term average) causing many value investors to adopt a cautious stance toward US stocks. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 690

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Both Stocks and Bonds are Expensive! Here's Why

[We have determined that] the current cyclically adjusted real yield of 5.28% is telling us that the stock market is expensive, at least by historical standards. [In addition,] ...we have also determined that, relative to bonds, the real spread between stocks and bonds is 7.2% in terms of yields, i.e., stocks relative to bonds seem cheap. If stocks are expensive, and stocks relative to bonds seem cheap, this implies that bonds are also expensive. Everything is expensive! [Let me show you the math that confirms just that.] Words: 1590

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